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UVA
Virginia
CavaliersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference5-7#95 (-3.17)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
30· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
15· DPer play
18· DConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
40· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.104
Defensive EPA/play
+0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.120
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.69
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#103
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
recruiting 34 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense17th
Opp-adjusted defense45th
Offensive EPA/play15th
Defensive EPA/play40th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness25th
Defensive havoc15th
Points per drive15th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA4822Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate4333Arkansas2018OA -0.090 / -0.015similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4274Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4195Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate388
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Richmond | 34-13 | W | -19.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 2 | @ Wake Forest | 31-30 | W | +2.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Maryland | 13-27 | L | +2.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Coastal Carolina | 43-24 | W | -3.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 6 | vs Boston College | 24-14 | W | -1.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 7 | vs Louisville | 20-24 | L | +7.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Clemson | 31-48 | L | +21.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 9 | vs North Carolina | 14-41 | L | -4.5 | L | 59.25 | U |
| 11 | @ Pittsburgh | 24-19 | W | +7.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Notre Dame | 14-35 | L | +22.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 13 | vs SMU | 7-33 | L | +9.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 14 | @ Virginia Tech | 17-37 | L | +7.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.079 | 16th | +0.010 | 43th |
| Red Zone | -0.241 | 8th | -0.057 | 60th |
| Third Down | -0.100 | 11th | +0.020 | 65th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.119 | 11th | +0.021 | 39th |
| First Half | -0.149 | 11th | +0.020 | 37th |
| Second Half | -0.002 | 39th | +0.001 | 51th |
| Early Downs | -0.032 | 40th | -0.084 | 72th |
| Passing Downs | -0.248 | 4th | +0.090 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | +0.014 | 54th | -0.033 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.279 | 13th | -0.146 | 77th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
360.9
Pts/Drive
1.69
3rd Down%
34.3%
3&Out%
26.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Virginia | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 272 | 345 |
| Points / Game | 22.7 | 28.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 234 | 238 |
| Rushing | 99 | 98 |
| Passing | 116 | 123 |
| Penalty | 19 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 432 | 422 |
| Yards | 1,583 | 1,743 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 131.9 | 145.3 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 401 | 392 |
| Completions | 246 | 243 |
| Completion % | 61.3% | 62.0% |
| Yards | 2,748 | 3,157 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 125.10 | 141.88 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 833 | 814 |
| Yards | 4,331 | 4,900 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 360.9 | 408.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 20 |
| Yards | 120 | 99 |
| Average | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 19 |
| Yards | 324 | 257 |
| Average | 17.1 | 13.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,543 | 2,022 |
| Average | 43.8 | 44.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 14 |
| Yards | 80 | 229 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 14 |
| Lost | 5 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 62 | 85 |
| Yards | 544 | 729 |
| Yards / Game | 45.3 | 60.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:54 | 30:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 166 |
| Conversions | 62 | 64 |
| Conversion % | 34.3% | 38.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 24 |
| Conversions | 15 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 51.7% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 44 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 46 |
| Score % | 79.5% | 88.5% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 29 |
| TD % | 43.2% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 27 |
| Made | 18 | 20 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 74.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 39 |
| Made | 24 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 2 |
| Made | 4 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.