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ARK
Arkansas
RazorbacksBalancedSoutheastern Conference2-10#108 (-6.11)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
19· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
16· DPer play
16· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
26· DPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.090
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.100
Defensive EPA/play
+0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.161
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.207
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#27
recruiting 81 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense19th
Opp-adjusted defense45th
Offensive EPA/play17th
Defensive EPA/play26th
Offensive success rate14th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc48th
Points per drive17th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, passing offense4282Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4273Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4254Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3795Duke2020OA -0.072 / -0.025similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate374
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Eastern Illinois | 55-20 | W | -35.0 | P | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Colorado State | 27-34 | L | -14.0 | L | 70.5 | U |
| 3 | vs North Texas | 17-44 | L | -5.5 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Auburn | 3-34 | L | +30.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Texas A&M | 17-24 | L | +20.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Alabama | 31-65 | L | +35.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Ole Miss | 33-37 | L | +6.5 | W | 66.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Tulsa | 23-0 | W | -7.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 9 | vs Vanderbilt | 31-45 | L | +1.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | vs LSU | 17-24 | L | +12.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Mississippi State | 6-52 | L | +22.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 13 | @ Missouri | 0-38 | L | +24.0 | L | 59 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.138 | 8th | +0.047 | 28th |
| Red Zone | -0.226 | 10th | +0.075 | 33th |
| Third Down | -0.361 | 1th | -0.193 | 91th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.141 | 11th | +0.054 | 27th |
| First Half | -0.135 | 12th | +0.026 | 36th |
| Second Half | -0.141 | 5th | +0.071 | 27th |
| Early Downs | -0.071 | 21th | +0.042 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | -0.198 | 7th | +0.195 | 8th |
| Standard Downs | -0.100 | 17th | -0.018 | 51th |
| Goal to Go | -0.227 | 11th | +0.057 | 56th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
335.7
Pts/Drive
1.63
3rd Down%
31.0%
3&Out%
24.6%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arkansas | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 260 | 417 |
| Points / Game | 21.7 | 34.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 219 | 259 |
| Rushing | 95 | 116 |
| Passing | 101 | 119 |
| Penalty | 23 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 440 | 480 |
| Yards | 1,721 | 2,014 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 143.4 | 167.8 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 347 |
| Completions | 202 | 220 |
| Completion % | 54.6% | 63.4% |
| Yards | 2,307 | 2,944 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.2 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 112.40 | 152.71 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 810 | 827 |
| Yards | 4,028 | 4,958 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 335.7 | 413.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 18 |
| Yards | 91 | 209 |
| Average | 10.1 | 11.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 29 |
| Yards | 530 | 608 |
| Average | 23.0 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,549 | 2,278 |
| Average | 37.5 | 43.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 18 |
| Yards | 5 | 203 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 21 |
| Lost | 8 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 74 |
| Yards | 622 | 632 |
| Yards / Game | 51.8 | 52.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:43 | 30:09 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 154 |
| Conversions | 52 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 31.0% | 38.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 15 |
| Conversions | 5 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 35.7% | 46.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 57 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 47 |
| Score % | 83.8% | 82.5% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 35 |
| TD % | 43.2% | 61.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 26 |
| Made | 19 | 16 |
| Pct | 79.2% | 61.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 51 |
| Made | 29 | 49 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.