Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference2-10#130 (-23.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
11· FPer play
15· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
41· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.190
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.141
Defensive EPA/play
+0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.6%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.151
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.69
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4192Rice2019OA -0.096 / -0.061similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate4183Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4074Florida International2023OA -0.096 / -0.084similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3925Tulsa2024OA -0.064 / -0.038similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate391

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Houston Christian20-11W-17.0L--
2@ Colorado3-37L+36.0W56.5U
3vs App State13-20L+21.5W49U
4vs UTSA14-44L+13.5L45O
5@ Wyoming10-45L+16.5L45O
6vs UL Monroe27-45L+6.0L55O
7@ Louisiana7-24L+14.0L55U
9@ Coastal Carolina27-7W+9.5W54U
10vs New Mexico State35-45L+9.0L57O
11vs Georgia State30-33L+5.5W51.5O
12@ Arkansas State12-30L+27.0W59.5U
13@ Troy9-62L+23.5L53.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off29thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off17thPass Def71thRush Def17thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15610th+0.01039th
Red Zone-0.15217th-0.11571th
Third Down-0.27517th-0.05757th
No Garbage Time-0.1459th+0.01541th
First Half-0.11217th+0.03236th
Second Half-0.2098th-0.01348th
Early Downs-0.03552th+0.1178th
Passing Downs-0.2875th-0.10371th
Standard Downs-0.08029th+0.06617th
Goal to Go-0.3459th-0.41494th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
339.8
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
33.7%
3&Out%
26.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points207403
Points / Game17.333.6
First Downs
Total231249
Rushing9889
Passing106148
Penalty2712
Rushing
Attempts480455
Yards1,6091,700
Yards / Carry3.43.7
Yards / Game134.1141.7
Touchdowns1121
Passing
Attempts374397
Completions215250
Completion %57.5%63.0%
Yards2,4683,567
Yards / Attempt6.69.0
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions100
Passer Rating120.81155.90
Total Offense
Plays854852
Yards4,0775,267
Yards / Play4.86.2
Yards / Game339.8438.9
Punt Returns
Returns1830
Yards130247
Average7.28.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3129
Yards535685
Average17.323.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts8364
Yards3,4962,737
Average42.142.8
Interception Returns
Returns010
Yards0160
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2619
Lost149
Penalties
Penalties5388
Yards458780
Yards / Game38.265.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3130:29
Third Downs
Attempts181169
Conversions6161
Conversion %33.7%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1316
Conversions34
Conversion %23.1%25.0%
Red Zone
Trips3751
Scores (TD + FG)2843
Score %75.7%84.3%
Touchdowns1827
TD %48.6%52.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1424
Made1022
Pct71.4%91.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2547
Made2145
Pct84.0%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →