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STAN
Stanford
CardinalBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference4-8#97 (-7.24)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
29· DOverall
Offense
23· DRating
9· FPer play
10· FConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
49· CPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.140
Defensive EPA/play
-0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.126
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.42
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#133
model 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 62 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense19th
Opp-adjusted defense65th
Offensive EPA/play9th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate11th
Explosiveness2th
Defensive havoc26th
Points per drive7th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4132Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3823Rice2019OA -0.096 / -0.061similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3754UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3715Tulane2026OA -0.074 / +0.051similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA361
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Hawai'i | 20-23 | L | +2.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 2 | @ BYU | 3-27 | L | +20.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Boston College | 30-20 | W | +14.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Virginia | 20-48 | L | +16.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 5 | vs San José State | 30-29 | W | -3.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 7 | @ SMU | 10-34 | L | +19.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 8 | vs Florida State | 20-13 | W | +18.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Miami | 7-42 | L | +29.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Pittsburgh | 20-35 | L | +14.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 11 | @ North Carolina | 15-20 | L | +7.5 | W | 36.5 | U |
| 13 | vs California | 31-10 | W | +4.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Notre Dame | 20-49 | L | +32.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.112 | 12th | -0.011 | 47th |
| Red Zone | -0.209 | 12th | -0.147 | 79th |
| Third Down | -0.121 | 19th | +0.122 | 36th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.129 | 12th | -0.023 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.143 | 11th | +0.022 | 36th |
| Second Half | -0.081 | 24th | -0.047 | 65th |
| Early Downs | -0.062 | 25th | -0.038 | 59th |
| Passing Downs | -0.311 | 0th | -0.025 | 50th |
| Standard Downs | +0.005 | 51th | -0.003 | 47th |
| Goal to Go | -0.313 | 10th | -0.326 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.8
Yards/Game
306.5
Pts/Drive
1.42
3rd Down%
37.9%
3&Out%
27.4%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Stanford | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 226 | 350 |
| Points / Game | 18.8 | 29.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 209 | 254 |
| Rushing | 72 | 76 |
| Passing | 115 | 155 |
| Penalty | 22 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 392 | 381 |
| Yards | 1,014 | 1,431 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 84.5 | 119.3 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 391 | 445 |
| Completions | 224 | 294 |
| Completion % | 57.3% | 66.1% |
| Yards | 2,664 | 3,467 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 120.20 | 146.48 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 783 | 826 |
| Yards | 3,678 | 4,898 |
| Yards / Play | 4.7 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 306.5 | 408.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 21 |
| Yards | 37 | 278 |
| Average | 5.3 | 13.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 17 |
| Yards | 394 | 345 |
| Average | 17.9 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,514 | 1,977 |
| Average | 43.3 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 12 |
| Yards | 19 | 221 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 14 |
| Lost | 5 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 94 |
| Yards | 639 | 730 |
| Yards / Game | 53.3 | 60.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:49 | 30:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 182 | 171 |
| Conversions | 69 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 37.9% | 42.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 24 |
| Conversions | 14 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 60 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 46 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 76.7% |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 30 |
| TD % | 47.2% | 50.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 26 |
| Made | 16 | 21 |
| Pct | 76.2% | 80.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 39 |
| Made | 22 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.