Fourth Down Data
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UNLV

UNLV

RebelsBalanced
Mountain West Conference2-10#117 (-7.20)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
9· FPer play
4· FConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
37· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.090
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.157
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.8%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.172
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.089
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.65

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
+0.52
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#123
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
18th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
9th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
5th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
18th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4342South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense4193Rutgers2026OA -0.094 / -0.063similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3824Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3765Stanford2025OA -0.085 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense371

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Washington33-35L----
2@ Arizona State10-37L+35.0W54.5U
3vs Iowa State3-48L+32.0L53U
4@ Fresno State30-38L----
5@ UTSA17-24L+21.0W56.5U
7vs Utah State24-28L+7.0W60.5U
8vs San José State20-27L+20.5L58O
9@ Nevada20-51L----
10@ New Mexico31-17W+2.0W45O
11vs Hawai'i27-13W+3.0W57U
12vs San Diego State20-28L+18.0L50O
13@ Air Force14-48L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS7-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off20thRed Zone Off21th3rd Down Off13thPass Def18thRush Def56thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11811th+0.02238th
Red Zone-0.17021th-0.14573th
Third Down-0.16813th+0.20925th
No Garbage Time-0.1619th+0.02036th
First Half-0.15212th+0.00844th
Second Half-0.08618th+0.03729th
Early Downs-0.08322th-0.01549th
Passing Downs-0.17811th+0.11718th
Standard Downs-0.07920th-0.02356th
Goal to Go-0.00258th-0.35484th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
312.6
Pts/Drive
1.65
3rd Down%
35.0%
3&Out%
24.0%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUNLVOpponents
Scoring
Points249394
Points / Game20.832.8
First Downs
Total186259
Rushing70118
Passing100128
Penalty1613
Rushing
Attempts395457
Yards1,3172,063
Yards / Carry3.34.5
Yards / Game109.8171.9
Touchdowns1819
Passing
Attempts332343
Completions194239
Completion %58.4%69.7%
Yards2,4342,853
Yards / Attempt7.38.3
Touchdowns1126
Interceptions149
Passer Rating122.52159.32
Total Offense
Plays727800
Yards3,7514,916
Yards / Play5.26.1
Yards / Game312.6409.7
Punt Returns
Returns725
Yards49190
Average7.07.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2233
Yards387666
Average17.620.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5936
Yards2,3531,492
Average39.941.4
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards81175
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1118
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties5466
Yards455542
Yards / Game37.945.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3930:13
Third Downs
Attempts163151
Conversions5762
Conversion %35.0%41.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1621
Conversions411
Conversion %25.0%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips3957
Scores (TD + FG)3545
Score %89.7%78.9%
Touchdowns2230
TD %56.4%52.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1827
Made1618
Pct88.9%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2545
Made2544
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →