Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
RICE

Rice

OwlsBalanced
American Conference2-11#125 (-10.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

6· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
4· FPer play
2· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
12· FPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.165
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.193
Defensive EPA/play
+0.116
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.0%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.309
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.97
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 48 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
12th
Offensive success rate
2th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2024OA -0.056 / -0.019similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4742Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA4353UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4344Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate4045Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate396

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Prairie View A&M31-28W----
1vs Houston27-45L+25.5W55.5O
2@ Hawai'i29-43L+17.0W70O
4@ Southern Miss22-40L+14.0L55.5O
5@ Wake Forest24-56L+28.0L67O
6vs UTSA3-20L-1.0L50U
7vs UAB0-42L+17.0L52.5U
8@ Florida International17-36L+24.0W53.5U
9@ North Texas17-41L+30.0W58P
10vs UTEP26-34L+2.0L45O
11@ Louisiana Tech13-28L+24.0W53U
12@ LSU10-42L+41.5W52P
13vs Old Dominion27-13W+7.5W61.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-5-2
50.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS7-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off3thRush Off24thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off2thPass Def18thRush Def19thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1397th+0.09815th
Red Zone+0.03755th+0.19916th
Third Down-0.3102th+0.08933th
No Garbage Time-0.1895th+0.12013th
First Half-0.2046th+0.10216th
Second Half-0.07321th+0.09320th
Early Downs-0.09714th+0.08514th
Passing Downs-0.2583th+0.12418th
Standard Downs-0.06024th+0.08519th
Goal to Go+0.01141th+0.21529th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.7
Yards/Game
318.4
Pts/Drive
1.35
3rd Down%
28.7%
3&Out%
28.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points246468
Points / Game18.936.0
First Downs
Total210280
Rushing91107
Passing106156
Penalty1317
Rushing
Attempts490450
Yards1,8672,158
Yards / Carry3.84.8
Yards / Game143.6166.0
Touchdowns1531
Passing
Attempts368392
Completions197247
Completion %53.5%63.0%
Yards2,2723,641
Yards / Attempt6.29.3
Touchdowns1328
Interceptions168
Passer Rating108.36160.52
Total Offense
Plays858842
Yards4,1395,799
Yards / Play4.86.9
Yards / Game318.4446.1
Punt Returns
Returns715
Yards16127
Average2.38.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3717
Yards903274
Average24.416.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts8154
Yards3,6362,160
Average44.940.0
Interception Returns
Returns816
Yards87241
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost711
Penalties
Penalties5854
Yards513448
Yards / Game39.534.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4127:19
Third Downs
Attempts195157
Conversions5666
Conversion %28.7%42.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3013
Conversions186
Conversion %60.0%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips3254
Scores (TD + FG)2748
Score %84.4%88.9%
Touchdowns1841
TD %56.3%75.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2315
Made1512
Pct65.2%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2359
Made2356
Pct100.0%94.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →