Fourth Down Data
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MASS

Massachusetts

MinutemenBalanced
Mid-American Conference0-12#136 (-29.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

0· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
0· FRating
4· FPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
0· FRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.185
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.202
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.216
Defensive EPA/play
+0.153
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.6%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.369
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#136
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#135
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
0th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA4352Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate4213Akron2019OA -0.284 / -0.080similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate4194NC State2026OA -0.050 / -0.006similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4095Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA388

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Temple10-42L+14.5L52.5U
2vs Bryant26-27L-13.5L47O
3@ Iowa7-47L+35.0L44.5O
5@ Missouri6-42L+44.5W57U
6vs Western Michigan3-21L+13.0L46U
7@ Kent State6-42L+35.5L50.5U
8vs Buffalo21-28L+16.0W47O
9@ Central Michigan13-38L+30.5W55.25U
11@ Akron10-44L+10.5L43.5O
12vs Northern Illinois3-45L+34.0W53.5O
13@ Ohio14-42L+35.5W54.5O
14vs Bowling Green14-45L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
0-12
0.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off9thRush Off1thRed Zone Off2th3rd Down Off13thPass Def13thRush Def9thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2260th+0.1166th
Red Zone-0.4242th+0.3500th
Third Down-0.17213th+0.03158th
No Garbage Time-0.2081th+0.1484th
First Half-0.14212th+0.1506th
Second Half-0.3210th+0.08118th
Early Downs-0.1693th+0.06813th
Passing Downs-0.2199th+0.13013th
Standard Downs-0.2301th+0.1109th
Goal to Go-0.3629th+0.23518th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
6.8
Havoc Rate
9.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
9.6
Yards/Game
247.5
Pts/Drive
1.10
3rd Down%
31.4%
3&Out%
36.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMassachusettsOpponents
Scoring
Points133463
Points / Game11.138.6
First Downs
Total186277
Rushing68136
Passing94123
Penalty2418
Rushing
Attempts352527
Yards9892,656
Yards / Carry2.85.0
Yards / Game82.4221.3
Touchdowns630
Passing
Attempts415297
Completions223200
Completion %53.7%67.3%
Yards1,9812,550
Yards / Attempt4.88.6
Touchdowns829
Interceptions94
Passer Rating95.86168.99
Total Offense
Plays767824
Yards2,9705,206
Yards / Play3.96.3
Yards / Game247.5433.8
Punt Returns
Returns919
Yards43352
Average4.818.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns822
Yards160562
Average20.025.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7041
Yards3,2111,682
Average45.941.0
Interception Returns
Returns49
Yards8674
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1311
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties6256
Yards497511
Yards / Game41.442.6
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5433:13
Third Downs
Attempts172150
Conversions5470
Conversion %31.4%46.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2619
Conversions613
Conversion %23.1%68.4%
Red Zone
Trips2655
Scores (TD + FG)1748
Score %65.4%87.3%
Touchdowns1042
TD %38.5%76.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1613
Made1010
Pct62.5%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1561
Made1359
Pct86.7%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →