Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference1-11#134 (-13.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
3· FPer play
6· FConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
6· FPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.180
Defensive EPA/play
+0.136
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.5%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.316
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#134
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#131
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
3th
Defensive EPA/play
6th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
3th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate5662Bowling Green2020OA -0.049 / -0.037similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive EPA4453Kent State2024OA -0.089 / -0.075similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4154Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4085UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA396

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Kentucky0-31L+28.0L50U
2vs Southeastern Louisiana35-10W-14.5W54.5U
3vs South Florida24-49L+11.0L58.5O
4@ Jacksonville State7-44L+6.0L60U
6vs Louisiana13-23L+15.5W57.5U
7@ UL Monroe21-38L+6.5L41.5O
8vs Arkansas State28-44L+6.5L55O
9@ James Madison15-32L+24.5W54.5U
11vs Marshall3-37L+13.5L55U
12@ Texas State3-58L+26.5L55.5O
13vs South Alabama14-35L+22.5W55U
14@ Troy20-52L+17.5L48.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off7thRush Off4thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off5thPass Def1thRush Def34thRed Zone Def12th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1853th+0.1197th
Red Zone-0.20013th+0.19612th
Third Down-0.2285th+0.25217th
No Garbage Time-0.1794th+0.1337th
First Half-0.15110th+0.1417th
Second Half-0.2271th+0.09318th
Early Downs-0.1635th-0.00639th
Passing Downs-0.2147th+0.2831th
Standard Downs-0.1654th+0.03734th
Goal to Go-0.27113th+0.12524th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.5%Rush 56.5%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-1.6
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
283.5
Pts/Drive
1.27
3rd Down%
25.0%
3&Out%
30.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points183453
Points / Game15.337.8
First Downs
Total185261
Rushing84131
Passing75116
Penalty2614
Rushing
Attempts412474
Yards1,3032,792
Yards / Carry3.25.9
Yards / Game108.6232.7
Touchdowns1331
Passing
Attempts317321
Completions166209
Completion %52.4%65.1%
Yards2,0992,598
Yards / Attempt6.68.1
Touchdowns724
Interceptions176
Passer Rating104.55154.03
Total Offense
Plays729795
Yards3,4025,390
Yards / Play4.76.8
Yards / Game283.5449.2
Punt Returns
Returns925
Yards39132
Average4.35.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2217
Yards414400
Average18.823.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6146
Yards2,7141,778
Average44.538.7
Interception Returns
Returns617
Yards115199
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost124
Penalties
Penalties7274
Yards579659
Yards / Game48.354.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2330:33
Third Downs
Attempts152156
Conversions3866
Conversion %25.0%42.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2718
Conversions1213
Conversion %44.4%72.2%
Red Zone
Trips3053
Scores (TD + FG)2247
Score %73.3%88.7%
Touchdowns1735
TD %56.7%66.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1620
Made1016
Pct62.5%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1858
Made1555
Pct83.3%94.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →