Fourth Down Data
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RUTG

Rutgers

Scarlet KnightsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference2-10#127 (-17.81)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

6· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
4· FPer play
15· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
8· FPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.170
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.188
Defensive EPA/play
+0.122
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.310
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.107
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#127
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#52
recruiting 75 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
18th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate5662Central Michigan2026OA -0.073 / -0.017similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA4553UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4394San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate4375Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate422

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Massachusetts48-21W-17.0W54O
2@ Iowa0-30L+18.0L48U
4vs Boston College16-30L+7.5L57.5U
5@ Michigan0-52L+27.5L50O
6vs Maryland7-48L+14.0L55.5U
7@ Indiana0-35L+27.5L50U
8vs Minnesota7-42L+28.5L46O
9vs Liberty44-34W+7.5W44O
10@ Illinois10-38L+19.0L48.5U
12vs Ohio State21-56L+54.0W63.5O
13vs Michigan State0-27L+22.5L43.5U
14@ Penn State6-27L+39.5W51U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off1thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off16thPass Def11thRush Def25thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1881th+0.10212th
Red Zone-0.3424th+0.04735th
Third Down-0.15616th+0.23914th
No Garbage Time-0.1804th+0.1366th
First Half-0.1658th+0.09123th
Second Half-0.2154th+0.11310th
Early Downs-0.2541th+0.06615th
Passing Downs-0.13317th+0.20911th
Standard Downs-0.2221th+0.05225th
Goal to Go+0.09967th-0.05553th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.8%Rush 62.2%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
14.4%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
10.2
Yards/Game
273.1
Pts/Drive
1.21
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
28.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRutgersOpponents
Scoring
Points159440
Points / Game13.336.7
First Downs
Total160273
Rushing78119
Passing68126
Penalty1428
Rushing
Attempts457494
Yards1,6052,413
Yards / Carry3.54.9
Yards / Game133.8201.1
Touchdowns1129
Passing
Attempts278343
Completions154209
Completion %55.4%60.9%
Yards1,6722,790
Yards / Attempt6.08.1
Touchdowns725
Interceptions156
Passer Rating103.43149.81
Total Offense
Plays735837
Yards3,2775,203
Yards / Play4.56.2
Yards / Game273.1433.6
Punt Returns
Returns1320
Yards35134
Average2.76.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3626
Yards727599
Average20.223.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7651
Yards3,3272,148
Average43.842.1
Interception Returns
Returns615
Yards8154
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles137
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties7667
Yards709586
Yards / Game59.148.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0229:58
Third Downs
Attempts177163
Conversions6172
Conversion %34.5%44.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1421
Conversions611
Conversion %42.9%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips2652
Scores (TD + FG)1943
Score %73.1%82.7%
Touchdowns1036
TD %38.5%69.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1513
Made1110
Pct73.3%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1858
Made1856
Pct100.0%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →