Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansBalanced
Mountain West Conference2-11#133 (-28.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
4· FPer play
13· FConsistency
11· FBig plays
Defense
6· FRating
22· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.187
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.249
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.323
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.032
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#133
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 76 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
15th
Explosiveness
11th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
2th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2021OA -0.200 / -0.127similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA5012Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: passing offense, havoc rate, takeaway rate4793Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4604Northwestern2022OA -0.118 / -0.038similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, run defense4415Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate437

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs South Florida22-42L----
1vs Cal Poly34-13W-11.0W--
2@ Texas0-56L+25.5L62U
3@ Utah16-54L+27.5L59.5O
4vs Utah State10-61L+2.0L55O
5@ UNLV13-41L+16.5L62U
6vs Fresno State10-27L+17.0P60U
7@ Hawai'i26-37L+17.0W63.5U
9@ BYU20-41L+9.0L50.5O
10vs San Diego State7-52L+23.5L51O
11@ Nevada14-59L+17.5L67O
12@ Colorado State14-42L+32.5W67.5U
13vs Wyoming20-17W+18.5W48U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off18thRush Off2thRed Zone Off2th3rd Down Off2thPass Def35thRush Def28thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2055th+0.03133th
Red Zone-0.4162th+0.06138th
Third Down-0.4252th+0.14023th
No Garbage Time-0.2384th+0.05626th
First Half-0.2950th+0.10720th
Second Half-0.10624th-0.04959th
Early Downs-0.1844th-0.03054th
Passing Downs-0.14018th+0.04035th
Standard Downs-0.2432th+0.02728th
Goal to Go-1.1720th+0.29011th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
12.8%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
10.6
Yards/Game
318.1
Pts/Drive
1.01
3rd Down%
30.5%
3&Out%
23.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points206542
Points / Game15.841.7
First Downs
Total224313
Rushing94172
Passing110124
Penalty2017
Rushing
Attempts483686
Yards1,5613,710
Yards / Carry3.25.4
Yards / Game120.1285.4
Touchdowns640
Passing
Attempts415359
Completions226221
Completion %54.5%61.6%
Yards2,5742,781
Yards / Attempt6.27.7
Touchdowns1525
Interceptions206
Passer Rating108.85146.27
Total Offense
Plays8981,045
Yards4,1356,491
Yards / Play4.66.2
Yards / Game318.1499.3
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards85275
Average5.314.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns449
Yards898161
Average20.417.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts8666
Yards3,7262,554
Average43.338.7
Interception Returns
Returns620
Yards137311
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles3616
Lost2210
Penalties
Penalties8483
Yards694694
Yards / Game53.453.4
Time of Possession
Per Game24:4835:12
Third Downs
Attempts190207
Conversions5894
Conversion %30.5%45.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2120
Conversions917
Conversion %42.9%85.0%
Red Zone
Trips2968
Scores (TD + FG)1958
Score %65.5%85.3%
Touchdowns1346
TD %44.8%67.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1722
Made1417
Pct82.4%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2470
Made2069
Pct83.3%98.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →