Fourth Down Data
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UConn

HuskiesBalanced
FBS Independents1-11#132 (-15.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
3· FPer play
1· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
21· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.200
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.127
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.250
Defensive EPA/play
+0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.4%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.321
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.128
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.73
own return game
Return Defense
+0.69
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#132
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#129
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 60 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UConn ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
3th
Defensive EPA/play
21th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
6th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA5012Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate4353Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense4314Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4095Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA408

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Fresno State0-45L+27.5L63U
1vs Holy Cross28-38L----
2vs Purdue0-49L+32.5L56U
3@ Army21-52L+34.5W48.5O
4vs Wyoming22-24L+31.5W53.5U
5@ Vanderbilt28-30L+14.5W51O
6@ Massachusetts13-27L-3.5L57U
7vs Yale21-15W+15.5L56O
8vs Middle Tennessee13-44L----
11@ Clemson7-44L+41.0W50O
12@ UCF17-49L+30.5L55.5O
13vs Houston17-45L+32.3W56O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off3thRush Off3thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off4thPass Def23thRush Def38thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2502th+0.04526th
Red Zone-0.24411th+0.14817th
Third Down-0.2984th+0.13836th
No Garbage Time-0.2403th+0.07221th
First Half-0.2293th+0.05228th
Second Half-0.2761th+0.03829th
Early Downs-0.2064th+0.00439th
Passing Downs-0.2923th+0.09723th
Standard Downs-0.2203th+0.02138th
Goal to Go+0.09673th+0.02445th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.8%Rush 48.2%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
13.4%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
10.5
Yards/Game
263.8
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
23.7%
3&Out%
33.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — UConn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUConnOpponents
Scoring
Points187462
Points / Game15.638.5
First Downs
Total175279
Rushing71136
Passing78127
Penalty2616
Rushing
Attempts378513
Yards1,1952,326
Yards / Carry3.24.5
Yards / Game99.6193.8
Touchdowns827
Passing
Attempts406403
Completions207245
Completion %51.0%60.8%
Yards1,9703,096
Yards / Attempt4.97.7
Touchdowns1130
Interceptions1710
Passer Rating92.31144.93
Total Offense
Plays784916
Yards3,1655,422
Yards / Play4.05.9
Yards / Game263.8451.8
Punt Returns
Returns1322
Yards14597
Average11.24.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5123
Yards1,125482
Average22.121.0
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts8057
Yards3,1132,298
Average38.940.3
Interception Returns
Returns1017
Yards49119
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1711
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties8071
Yards585712
Yards / Game48.859.3
Time of Possession
Per Game25:4934:11
Third Downs
Attempts177183
Conversions4276
Conversion %23.7%41.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2925
Conversions1118
Conversion %37.9%72.0%
Red Zone
Trips2854
Scores (TD + FG)2151
Score %75.0%94.4%
Touchdowns1238
TD %42.9%70.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1721
Made1217
Pct70.6%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1958
Made1957
Pct100.0%98.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →