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COLO
Colorado
BuffaloesBalancedBig 12 Conference1-11#136 (-14.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
0· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
4· FPer play
7· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
3· FPer play
0· FConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.222
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.093
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.275
Defensive EPA/play
+0.179
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
55.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.455
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.05
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.90
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#136
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#131
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 80 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense1th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play4th
Defensive EPA/play3th
Offensive success rate25th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc1th
Points per drive5th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive EPA4692UTEP2019OA -0.113 / -0.192similar: defensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate4213Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate4214Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4105Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate408
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs TCU | 13-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Air Force | 10-41 | L | +17.5 | L | 50 | O |
| 3 | @ Minnesota | 7-49 | L | +27.5 | L | 47 | O |
| 4 | vs UCLA | 17-45 | L | +21.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 5 | @ Arizona | 20-43 | L | +17.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 7 | vs California | 20-13 | W | +14.5 | W | 48.25 | U |
| 8 | @ Oregon State | 9-42 | L | +23.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Arizona State | 34-42 | L | +13.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Oregon | 10-49 | L | +31.5 | L | 61 | U |
| 11 | @ USC | 17-55 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Washington | 7-54 | L | +31.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Utah | 21-63 | L | +30.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS0-6
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS2-10
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.169 | 10th | +0.170 | 4th |
| Red Zone | -0.132 | 27th | +0.329 | 2th |
| Third Down | -0.078 | 24th | +0.433 | 5th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.293 | 2th | +0.188 | 3th |
| First Half | -0.231 | 4th | +0.214 | 2th |
| Second Half | -0.106 | 21th | +0.121 | 6th |
| Early Downs | -0.166 | 10th | +0.107 | 6th |
| Passing Downs | -0.125 | 20th | +0.231 | 8th |
| Standard Downs | -0.196 | 8th | +0.147 | 3th |
| Goal to Go | +0.019 | 58th | +0.390 | 3th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
11.0%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
8.3
Yards/Game
281.3
Pts/Drive
1.05
3rd Down%
31.7%
3&Out%
29.7%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 185 | 534 |
| Points / Game | 15.4 | 44.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 189 | 310 |
| Rushing | 86 | 150 |
| Passing | 85 | 145 |
| Penalty | 18 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 387 | 485 |
| Yards | 1,300 | 2,941 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 108.3 | 245.1 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 39 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 360 | 365 |
| Completions | 179 | 245 |
| Completion % | 49.7% | 67.1% |
| Yards | 2,075 | 3,176 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.8 | 8.7 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 31 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 101.75 | 164.95 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 747 | 850 |
| Yards | 3,375 | 6,117 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 7.2 |
| Yards / Game | 281.3 | 509.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 34 |
| Yards | 177 | 287 |
| Average | 16.1 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 10 |
| Yards | 750 | 255 |
| Average | 21.4 | 25.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 28 |
| Yards | 2,571 | 1,198 |
| Average | 40.8 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 10 |
| Yards | 57 | 145 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 14 |
| Lost | 12 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 72 |
| Yards | 589 | 632 |
| Yards / Game | 49.1 | 52.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:24 | 32:37 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 164 | 143 |
| Conversions | 52 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 31.7% | 53.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 23 |
| Conversions | 11 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 36.7% | 47.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 29 | 68 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 22 | 58 |
| Score % | 75.9% | 85.3% |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 52 |
| TD % | 51.7% | 76.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 13 |
| Made | 11 | 9 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 69 |
| Made | 20 | 69 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.