Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksBalanced
Southeastern Conference2-10#117 (-12.97)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
24· DRating
13· FPer play
24· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
13· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.121
Defensive EPA/play
+0.109
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
49.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.229
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.81
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 91 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
9th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4102Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3913Purdue2025OA -0.058 / -0.065similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, run defense3894Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3895New Mexico2019OA -0.156 / -0.122similar: run defense, rushing offense, havoc rate379

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Portland State20-13W-29.5L60.5U
2@ Ole Miss17-31L+5.0L50.5U
3vs Colorado State55-34W-9.0W63.5O
4vs San José State24-31L-20.0L61U
5vs Texas A&M27-31L+23.0W59.5U
7@ Kentucky20-24L+5.0W53U
8vs Auburn10-51L+20.5L56O
9@ Alabama7-48L+32.0L56U
10vs Mississippi State24-54L+7.0L59O
11vs Western Kentucky19-45L0.0L51O
13@ LSU20-56L+41.5W68.5O
14vs Missouri14-24L+16.5W53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off34thRush Off15thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off4thPass Def7thRush Def46thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09418th+0.09314th
Red Zone-0.20219th+0.15014th
Third Down-0.3014th+0.27510th
No Garbage Time-0.14110th+0.09815th
First Half-0.2221th+0.1527th
Second Half+0.03757th+0.02140th
Early Downs-0.08519th+0.04131th
Passing Downs-0.05234th+0.2607th
Standard Downs-0.11915th+0.00846th
Goal to Go+0.03356th-0.07959th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.0%Rush 48.0%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
340.1
Pts/Drive
1.48
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
22.8%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points257442
Points / Game21.436.8
First Downs
Total219271
Rushing80121
Passing111130
Penalty2820
Rushing
Attempts376486
Yards1,7662,658
Yards / Carry4.75.5
Yards / Game147.2221.5
Touchdowns1429
Passing
Attempts407341
Completions202227
Completion %49.6%66.6%
Yards2,3152,750
Yards / Attempt5.78.1
Touchdowns1425
Interceptions156
Passer Rating101.39154.99
Total Offense
Plays783827
Yards4,0815,408
Yards / Play5.26.5
Yards / Game340.1450.7
Punt Returns
Returns146
Yards16127
Average11.54.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3514
Yards649242
Average18.517.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5944
Yards2,3201,960
Average39.344.5
Interception Returns
Returns615
Yards60279
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1218
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties6169
Yards492653
Yards / Game41.054.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4732:13
Third Downs
Attempts165156
Conversions5571
Conversion %33.3%45.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2016
Conversions89
Conversion %40.0%56.3%
Red Zone
Trips3247
Scores (TD + FG)2441
Score %75.0%87.2%
Touchdowns1733
TD %53.1%70.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1919
Made1415
Pct73.7%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3056
Made2955
Pct96.7%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →