Fourth Down Data
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PUR

Purdue

BoilermakersBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-10#87 (-5.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
38· DRating
29· DPer play
31· DConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
9· FPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.061
Defensive EPA/play
+0.112
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.173
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.126
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#127
model 40 higher
Recruiting Rank
#47
recruiting 40 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, run defense3892Arkansas2018OA -0.090 / -0.015similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, passing offense3603Michigan State2024OA -0.022 / -0.027similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3574Ball State2017OA -0.115 / -0.131similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3385San José State2025OA -0.049 / -0.102similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA335

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ball State31-0W-17.0W48.5U
2vs Southern Illinois34-17W-20.5L52.25U
3vs USC17-33L+20.5W59.5U
4@ Notre Dame30-56L+24.5L51.5O
6vs Illinois27-43L+8.5L55.5O
7@ Minnesota20-27L+7.5W49.5U
8@ Northwestern0-19L+12.5L25.5U
9vs Rutgers24-27L+1.5L58.5U
10@ Michigan16-21L+21.0W49U
11vs Ohio State10-34L+29.5W48.5U
12@ Washington13-49L+14.5L50.5O
14vs Indiana3-56L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off13thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off54thPass Def14thRush Def4thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06231th+0.1285th
Red Zone-0.3554th-0.19284th
Third Down+0.10154th+0.11441th
No Garbage Time-0.06529th+0.1266th
First Half-0.04035th+0.2001th
Second Half-0.08420th+0.05028th
Early Downs-0.10611th+0.1301th
Passing Downs+0.00256th+0.12214th
Standard Downs-0.09613th+0.1314th
Goal to Go-0.07139th-0.02951th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.9%Rush 48.1%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
343.6
Pts/Drive
1.81
3rd Down%
38.4%
3&Out%
20.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPurdueOpponents
Scoring
Points225382
Points / Game18.831.8
First Downs
Total231263
Rushing83117
Passing128121
Penalty2025
Rushing
Attempts376461
Yards1,5172,182
Yards / Carry4.04.7
Yards / Game126.4181.8
Touchdowns1129
Passing
Attempts405312
Completions238202
Completion %58.8%64.7%
Yards2,6062,900
Yards / Attempt6.49.3
Touchdowns1515
Interceptions134
Passer Rating118.62156.12
Total Offense
Plays781773
Yards4,1235,082
Yards / Play5.36.6
Yards / Game343.6423.5
Punt Returns
Returns816
Yards2659
Average3.33.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2913
Yards627323
Average21.624.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5034
Yards2,1621,487
Average43.243.7
Interception Returns
Returns413
Yards18173
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles138
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties5850
Yards562494
Yards / Game46.841.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0231:58
Third Downs
Attempts159145
Conversions6163
Conversion %38.4%43.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2518
Conversions1511
Conversion %60.0%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips3752
Scores (TD + FG)2842
Score %75.7%80.8%
Touchdowns1828
TD %48.6%53.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1725
Made1518
Pct88.2%72.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2446
Made2446
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →