Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference5-7#102 (-4.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
20· DRating
20· DPer play
27· DConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
20· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
3· FRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#90
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#28
recruiting 74 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Purdue2025OA -0.058 / -0.065similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3582Arizona2024OA -0.017 / -0.032similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3463UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: turnover rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3454Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: run defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3435Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate342

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida Atlantic16-10W----
2@ Maryland27-24W+9.0W45O
3vs Prairie View A&M40-0W-40.5L50.5U
4@ Boston College19-23L+6.5W45U
5vs Ohio State7-38L+23.5L48U
6@ Oregon10-31L----
8vs Iowa32-20W+6.0W41O
9@ Michigan17-24L+4.0L40.5O
10vs Indiana10-47L+7.5L51.5O
12@ Illinois16-38L-13.5L47.5U
13vs Purdue24-17W----
14vs Rutgers14-41L-2.0L47.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off63thRed Zone Off3th3rd Down Off28thPass Def22thRush Def42thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06519th+0.04826th
Red Zone-0.3353th+0.08931th
Third Down-0.00628th+0.22819th
No Garbage Time-0.07919th+0.06622th
First Half-0.01242th-0.00245th
Second Half-0.1237th+0.10317th
Early Downs+0.01363th-0.03453th
Passing Downs-0.2494th+0.10422th
Standard Downs+0.03063th+0.02042th
Goal to Go-0.4923th-0.11972th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.3%Rush 52.7%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
333.4
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
18.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points232313
Points / Game19.326.1
First Downs
Total226224
Rushing9977
Passing110121
Penalty1726
Rushing
Attempts394404
Yards1,3841,501
Yards / Carry3.53.7
Yards / Game115.3125.1
Touchdowns1119
Passing
Attempts353339
Completions212206
Completion %60.1%60.8%
Yards2,6172,483
Yards / Attempt7.47.3
Touchdowns1320
Interceptions129
Passer Rating127.68136.45
Total Offense
Plays747743
Yards4,0013,984
Yards / Play5.45.4
Yards / Game333.4332.0
Punt Returns
Returns622
Yards50209
Average8.39.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1013
Yards168269
Average16.820.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4545
Yards2,0941,941
Average46.543.1
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards214132
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles118
Lost72
Penalties
Penalties8050
Yards760407
Yards / Game63.333.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:05
Third Downs
Attempts154158
Conversions5970
Conversion %38.3%44.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions1214
Conversion %52.2%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3748
Scores (TD + FG)2841
Score %75.7%85.4%
Touchdowns1832
TD %48.6%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2118
Made1913
Pct90.5%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2535
Made2334
Pct92.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →