Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference1-11#125 (-15.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
1· FPer play
2· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
44· CPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.203
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.207
Defensive EPA/play
+0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.5%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.227
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.156
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.22

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.94
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
2th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1TCU2026OA -0.070 / +0.007similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3812UL Monroe2023OA -0.193 / -0.034similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3733Northwestern2024OA -0.062 / +0.010similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3624Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3615Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense355

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Norfolk State24-21W-25.5L55.5U
2@ Virginia Tech17-31L+30.0W57.5U
4@ Virginia17-28L+27.0W47.5U
5vs East Carolina21-24L-3.0L46.5U
6vs Western Kentucky3-20L+2.5L42U
7@ Marshall17-31L+16.5W46.5O
8@ UAB14-38L+16.5L42.5O
9vs Florida Atlantic3-41L+13.5L50.5U
10@ Florida International17-24L+18.0W47.5U
11vs UTSA23-24L-3.0L42O
13@ Middle Tennessee17-38L+13.5L47O
14vs Charlotte22-38L+10.0L51O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS0-6
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off7thRed Zone Off2th3rd Down Off31thPass Def37thRush Def60thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1873th+0.00347th
Red Zone-0.3772th+0.06331th
Third Down-0.04231th-0.05768th
No Garbage Time-0.1931th+0.02243th
First Half-0.1962th+0.02540th
Second Half-0.1787th-0.01959th
Early Downs-0.1974th-0.01059th
Passing Downs-0.2264th+0.04337th
Standard Downs-0.1607th-0.01960th
Goal to Go-0.27020th-0.27379th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
273.8
Pts/Drive
1.22
3rd Down%
31.1%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points195358
Points / Game16.329.8
First Downs
Total203241
Rushing76103
Passing104115
Penalty2323
Rushing
Attempts431463
Yards1,1681,771
Yards / Carry2.73.8
Yards / Game97.3147.6
Touchdowns1622
Passing
Attempts379324
Completions207206
Completion %54.6%63.6%
Yards2,1172,682
Yards / Attempt5.68.3
Touchdowns520
Interceptions129
Passer Rating99.56147.93
Total Offense
Plays810787
Yards3,2854,453
Yards / Play4.15.7
Yards / Game273.8371.1
Punt Returns
Returns1419
Yards100121
Average7.16.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2924
Yards718503
Average24.821.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6850
Yards2,6442,012
Average38.940.2
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards132118
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1620
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties7163
Yards724634
Yards / Game60.352.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4429:16
Third Downs
Attempts183155
Conversions5761
Conversion %31.1%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3311
Conversions205
Conversion %60.6%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips3851
Scores (TD + FG)2744
Score %71.1%86.3%
Touchdowns1432
TD %36.8%62.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2023
Made1514
Pct75.0%60.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1843
Made1842
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →