Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-8#120 (-17.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
7· FPer play
10· FConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
48· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.205
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.182
Defensive EPA/play
-0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.1%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.174
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.112
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
48th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
26th
Defensive havoc
26th
Points per drive
9th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense4952Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3813UL Monroe2023OA -0.193 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3714Northwestern2024OA -0.062 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3665Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, run defense360

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ole Miss27-47L+21.5W59O
2vs Oklahoma State7-44L+28.0L68U
3vs Alabama A&M45-0W-38.0W--
4vs Idaho23-29L-7.0L54.5U
5@ Louisiana Tech16-34L+11.5L57.5U
7@ Troy19-8W+18.0W51.5U
8vs UL Monroe33-23W-3.5W55.5O
9@ Georgia State13-21L+1.0L50.5U
10vs Louisiana14-19L-6.0L52U
11vs Arkansas State24-19W+12.5W56U
12@ Georgia Southern0-52L-6.0L45O
14@ New Mexico State17-22L+12.0W55U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off10thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off29thPass Def37thRush Def48thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1639th-0.00346th
Red Zone-0.3744th-0.43497th
Third Down-0.13929th+0.15220th
No Garbage Time-0.1807th-0.00347th
First Half-0.2097th-0.01245th
Second Half-0.11322th+0.00638th
Early Downs-0.1399th-0.01341th
Passing Downs-0.18511th+0.03137th
Standard Downs-0.15110th-0.02048th
Goal to Go-1.1561th-0.15271th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.3%Rush 47.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
334.3
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
30.7%
3&Out%
27.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points238318
Points / Game19.826.5
First Downs
Total213258
Rushing6998
Passing131139
Penalty1321
Rushing
Attempts375431
Yards1,1671,822
Yards / Carry3.14.2
Yards / Game97.3151.8
Touchdowns1015
Passing
Attempts411421
Completions222262
Completion %54.0%62.2%
Yards2,8453,191
Yards / Attempt6.97.6
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions148
Passer Rating117.39138.56
Total Offense
Plays786852
Yards4,0125,013
Yards / Play5.15.9
Yards / Game334.3417.8
Punt Returns
Returns723
Yards34152
Average4.96.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3239
Yards612903
Average19.123.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7147
Yards3,1961,942
Average45.041.3
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards7206
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1420
Lost412
Penalties
Penalties7366
Yards679479
Yards / Game56.639.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3630:24
Third Downs
Attempts163169
Conversions5072
Conversion %30.7%42.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1820
Conversions810
Conversion %44.4%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3858
Scores (TD + FG)2843
Score %73.7%74.1%
Touchdowns1727
TD %44.7%46.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1928
Made1619
Pct84.2%67.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2734
Made2631
Pct96.3%91.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →