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SJSU
San José State
SpartansBalancedMountain West Conference1-11#119 (-9.32)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
5· FRating
8· FPer play
9· FConsistency
11· FBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
32· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.139
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.168
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.3%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.210
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#119
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 63 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense8th
Opp-adjusted defense32th
Offensive EPA/play8th
Defensive EPA/play32th
Offensive success rate8th
Explosiveness11th
Defensive havoc7th
Points per drive9th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Alabama2017OA -0.205 / -0.056similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense4952Sam Houston2025OA -0.185 / -0.124similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3953UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3694Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3695Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate366
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UC Davis | 38-44 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Washington State | 0-31 | L | +32.0 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Oregon | 22-35 | L | +42.5 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Hawai'i | 41-44 | L | +9.0 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Colorado State | 30-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 59 | O |
| 7 | vs Army | 3-52 | L | +17.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | @ San Diego State | 13-16 | L | +25.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 9 | vs UNLV | 50-37 | W | -2.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Wyoming | 9-24 | L | +17.5 | W | 38 | U |
| 11 | @ Utah State | 24-62 | L | +31.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Nevada | 12-21 | L | +14.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Fresno State | 13-31 | L | +31.5 | W | 51 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-3
72.7%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS7-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.159 | 5th | +0.042 | 32th |
| Red Zone | -0.402 | 2th | +0.073 | 35th |
| Third Down | -0.138 | 14th | -0.002 | 60th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.168 | 7th | +0.042 | 30th |
| First Half | -0.227 | 4th | +0.050 | 29th |
| Second Half | -0.092 | 16th | +0.033 | 39th |
| Early Downs | -0.073 | 20th | -0.011 | 47th |
| Passing Downs | -0.202 | 6th | +0.109 | 24th |
| Standard Downs | -0.129 | 8th | +0.010 | 42th |
| Goal to Go | -0.496 | 3th | +0.039 | 58th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 55.8%Rush 44.2%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
13.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
323.7
Pts/Drive
1.43
3rd Down%
32.8%
3&Out%
26.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San José State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 255 | 439 |
| Points / Game | 21.3 | 36.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 201 | 289 |
| Rushing | 43 | 129 |
| Passing | 141 | 138 |
| Penalty | 17 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 356 | 537 |
| Yards | 738 | 2,534 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 61.5 | 211.2 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 449 | 418 |
| Completions | 258 | 252 |
| Completion % | 57.5% | 60.3% |
| Yards | 3,146 | 3,407 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 31 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 125.96 | 147.01 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 805 | 955 |
| Yards | 3,884 | 5,941 |
| Yards / Play | 4.8 | 6.2 |
| Yards / Game | 323.7 | 495.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 25 |
| Yards | 157 | 256 |
| Average | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 39 | 25 |
| Yards | 860 | 527 |
| Average | 22.1 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 80 | 52 |
| Yards | 3,441 | 2,124 |
| Average | 43.0 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 12 |
| Yards | 220 | 229 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 12 |
| Lost | 6 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 82 | 76 |
| Yards | 655 | 621 |
| Yards / Game | 54.6 | 51.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:34 | 33:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 190 |
| Conversions | 61 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 32.8% | 41.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 29 |
| Conversions | 4 | 20 |
| Conversion % | 28.6% | 69.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 57 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 47 |
| Score % | 78.4% | 82.5% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 35 |
| TD % | 51.4% | 61.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 23 |
| Made | 14 | 13 |
| Pct | 73.7% | 56.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 55 |
| Made | 25 | 54 |
| Pct | 92.6% | 98.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.