Fourth Down Data
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SHSU

Sam Houston

BearkatsBalanced
Conference USA2-10#135 (-25.40)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
3· FPer play
12· FConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
23· DPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
0· F3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.185
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.124
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.200
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.1%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.259
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.044
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#135
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#126
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Sam Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
3th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4592Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense4223San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3974Vanderbilt2019OA -0.139 / -0.103similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3895Missouri State2026OA -0.099 / +0.017similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense364

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Western Kentucky24-41L+9.5L61.5U
1vs UNLV21-38L----
2@ Hawai'i20-37L+7.0L49O
4@ Texas0-55L+39.5L51O
6@ New Mexico State10-37L+7.0W54.5O
7vs Jacksonville State27-29L+2.5L47.5O
8vs UTEP17-35L----
10@ Louisiana Tech14-55L----
11@ Oregon State21-17W+20.5W52.5U
12vs Delaware26-23W+11.0W56.5U
13@ Middle Tennessee17-31L+6.5L46.5O
14vs Florida International16-56L+11.0L51.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off1thRush Off14thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off0thPass Def40thRush Def10thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def39th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1683th+0.08114th
Red Zone-0.5050th-0.05962th
Third Down-0.4880th+0.11839th
No Garbage Time-0.2033th+0.05823th
First Half-0.1975th+0.07021th
Second Half-0.1416th+0.09215th
Early Downs+0.00253th+0.0986th
Passing Downs-0.3031th+0.01140th
Standard Downs-0.08614th+0.11010th
Goal to Go-0.14626th-0.04656th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
316.0
Pts/Drive
1.25
3rd Down%
22.5%
3&Out%
29.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Sam Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSam HoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points213454
Points / Game17.837.8
First Downs
Total200291
Rushing71120
Passing105147
Penalty2424
Rushing
Attempts371461
Yards1,5832,491
Yards / Carry4.35.4
Yards / Game131.9207.6
Touchdowns1033
Passing
Attempts389371
Completions213261
Completion %54.8%70.4%
Yards2,2093,311
Yards / Attempt5.78.9
Touchdowns1220
Interceptions108
Passer Rating107.50158.79
Total Offense
Plays760832
Yards3,7925,802
Yards / Play5.07.0
Yards / Game316.0483.5
Punt Returns
Returns1318
Yards110143
Average8.57.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3123
Yards626519
Average20.222.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6435
Yards2,7551,491
Average43.042.6
Interception Returns
Returns810
Yards155304
Touchdowns14
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties7768
Yards703664
Yards / Game58.655.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3131:13
Third Downs
Attempts160153
Conversions3668
Conversion %22.5%44.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3319
Conversions1011
Conversion %30.3%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips3259
Scores (TD + FG)2151
Score %65.6%86.4%
Touchdowns1337
TD %40.6%62.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1826
Made1119
Pct61.1%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2254
Made2253
Pct100.0%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →