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VAN
Vanderbilt
CommodoresBalancedSoutheastern Conference3-9#120 (-13.71)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
11· FOverall
Offense
9· FRating
4· FPer play
21· DConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
10· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.139
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.103
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.186
Defensive EPA/play
+0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.2%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.300
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.100
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.26
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 74 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense8th
Opp-adjusted defense12th
Offensive EPA/play4th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness4th
Defensive havoc23th
Points per drive5th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3982Sam Houston2025OA -0.185 / -0.124similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3883Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3724Northern Illinois2025OA -0.147 / -0.067similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3585UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense345
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Georgia | 6-30 | L | +22.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Purdue | 24-42 | L | +7.0 | L | 56 | O |
| 4 | vs LSU | 38-66 | L | +24.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Northern Illinois | 24-18 | W | -7.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Ole Miss | 6-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 7 | vs UNLV | 10-34 | L | -16.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Missouri | 21-14 | W | +21.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 10 | @ South Carolina | 7-24 | L | +15.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 11 | @ Florida | 0-56 | L | +27.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Kentucky | 14-38 | L | +8.5 | L | 43 | O |
| 13 | vs East Tennessee State | 38-0 | W | -20.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Tennessee | 10-28 | L | +24.0 | W | 48 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.188 | 2th | +0.071 | 21th |
| Red Zone | -0.463 | 1th | -0.077 | 66th |
| Third Down | -0.420 | 1th | +0.113 | 32th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.182 | 3th | +0.115 | 10th |
| First Half | -0.147 | 10th | +0.123 | 11th |
| Second Half | -0.224 | 3th | +0.013 | 46th |
| Early Downs | -0.030 | 35th | +0.147 | 1th |
| Passing Downs | -0.365 | 0th | +0.036 | 40th |
| Standard Downs | -0.070 | 22th | +0.089 | 10th |
| Goal to Go | -0.701 | 2th | +0.000 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
10.1
Yards/Game
296.7
Pts/Drive
1.26
3rd Down%
28.9%
3&Out%
29.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 198 | 381 |
| Points / Game | 16.5 | 31.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 191 | 264 |
| Rushing | 86 | 131 |
| Passing | 81 | 109 |
| Penalty | 24 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 363 | 473 |
| Yards | 1,496 | 2,505 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 124.7 | 208.8 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 325 |
| Completions | 202 | 200 |
| Completion % | 53.0% | 61.5% |
| Yards | 2,064 | 2,734 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.4 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 101.94 | 151.86 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 744 | 798 |
| Yards | 3,560 | 5,239 |
| Yards / Play | 4.8 | 6.6 |
| Yards / Game | 296.7 | 436.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 26 |
| Yards | 158 | 166 |
| Average | 9.3 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 13 |
| Yards | 423 | 279 |
| Average | 18.4 | 21.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 80 | 56 |
| Yards | 3,374 | 2,285 |
| Average | 42.2 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 10 |
| Yards | 69 | 141 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 9 |
| Lost | 3 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 76 | 90 |
| Yards | 649 | 811 |
| Yards / Game | 54.1 | 67.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:10 | 30:30 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 151 |
| Conversions | 48 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 28.9% | 39.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 14 |
| Conversions | 8 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 21 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 15 | 38 |
| Score % | 71.4% | 82.6% |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 31 |
| TD % | 52.4% | 67.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 15 |
| Made | 10 | 10 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 49 |
| Made | 22 | 49 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.