Fourth Down Data
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TENN

Tennessee

VolunteersBalanced
Southeastern Conference4-8#75 (-1.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

44· COverall
Offense
40· CRating
8· FPer play
6· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
49· CPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.052
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.172
Defensive EPA/play
-0.018
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.0%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 61 spots higher
39 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
2th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2025OA -0.147 / -0.067similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3962Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, run defense3913Ball State2025OA -0.172 / -0.060similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3784Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3635Nevada2023OA -0.179 / +0.003similar: offensive success rate, run defense, defensive EPA361

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia Tech42-41W-4.0L54O
2vs Indiana State42-7W-37.5L--
3@ Florida20-26L+6.5W51U
4vs Massachusetts17-13W-28.0L58U
5vs Georgia0-41L+10.0L47U
7vs South Carolina9-15L-2.5L45U
8@ Alabama7-45L+36.5L51O
9@ Kentucky26-29L+4.0W46O
10vs Southern Miss24-10W-7.0W48.5U
11@ Missouri17-50L+12.0L64O
12vs LSU10-30L+17.0L42.5U
13vs Vanderbilt24-42L-2.5L46O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off5thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off8thPass Def56thRush Def41thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1828th-0.01549th
Red Zone-0.15517th+0.11127th
Third Down-0.3748th+0.11026th
No Garbage Time-0.1628th-0.02653th
First Half-0.09523th-0.01950th
Second Half-0.2804th-0.01147th
Early Downs-0.12511th+0.01730th
Passing Downs-0.19110th-0.04056th
Standard Downs-0.1765th-0.00441th
Goal to Go-0.5783th-0.13068th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
15.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.4
Yards/Game
291.1
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
30.7%
3&Out%
30.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points238349
Points / Game19.829.1
First Downs
Total197262
Rushing77154
Passing9592
Penalty2516
Rushing
Attempts413555
Yards1,4093,015
Yards / Carry3.45.4
Yards / Game117.4251.3
Touchdowns1429
Passing
Attempts319279
Completions180154
Completion %56.4%55.2%
Yards2,0841,940
Yards / Attempt6.57.0
Touchdowns1115
Interceptions105
Passer Rating116.41127.76
Total Offense
Plays732834
Yards3,4934,955
Yards / Play4.85.9
Yards / Game291.1412.9
Punt Returns
Returns1430
Yards112220
Average8.07.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3217
Yards680392
Average21.323.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7159
Yards3,3232,556
Average46.843.3
Interception Returns
Returns510
Yards18690
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1620
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties6779
Yards497636
Yards / Game41.453.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1431:46
Third Downs
Attempts163166
Conversions5075
Conversion %30.7%45.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1010
Conversions34
Conversion %30.0%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips3550
Scores (TD + FG)2845
Score %80.0%90.0%
Touchdowns1935
TD %54.3%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2118
Made1413
Pct66.7%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2842
Made2838
Pct100.0%90.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →