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NIU
Northern Illinois
HuskiesRun-HeavyMountain West Conference3-9#122 (-14.26)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
4· FPer play
1· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
45· CPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
3· FRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.147
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.165
Defensive EPA/play
-0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.0%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.160
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.139
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.42
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense23th
Offensive EPA/play4th
Defensive EPA/play46th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness0th
Defensive havoc4th
Points per drive7th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tennessee2017OA -0.057 / +0.052similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3962Georgia Tech2019OA -0.075 / -0.064similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3843Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3614Vanderbilt2019OA -0.139 / -0.103similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3585Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense351
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Holy Cross | 19-17 | W | -5.0 | L | 19.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Maryland | 9-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Mississippi State | 10-38 | L | +16.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs San Diego State | 3-6 | L | +2.5 | L | 13.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Miami (OH) | 14-25 | L | +8.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | 10-16 | L | -2.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Ohio | 21-48 | L | +26.5 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Ball State | 21-7 | W | -6.5 | W | 31.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Toledo | 3-42 | L | -10.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Massachusetts | 45-3 | W | +7.0 | L | 39 | O |
| 13 | vs Western Michigan | 19-35 | L | -5.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Kent State | 31-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.122 | 10th | -0.009 | 46th |
| Red Zone | -0.362 | 3th | -0.017 | 50th |
| Third Down | -0.021 | 33th | +0.135 | 33th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.144 | 8th | -0.010 | 47th |
| First Half | -0.064 | 26th | -0.022 | 50th |
| Second Half | -0.181 | 3th | +0.003 | 44th |
| Early Downs | -0.127 | 8th | -0.069 | 73th |
| Passing Downs | -0.252 | 4th | +0.140 | 11th |
| Standard Downs | -0.044 | 30th | -0.076 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | -0.069 | 40th | -0.223 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 32.8%Rush 67.2%
Havoc/Game
8.8
Havoc Rate
12.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
9.6
Yards/Game
285.9
Pts/Drive
1.42
3rd Down%
31.8%
3&Out%
25.6%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 205 | 292 |
| Points / Game | 17.1 | 24.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 181 | 240 |
| Rushing | 114 | 118 |
| Passing | 55 | 103 |
| Penalty | 12 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 479 |
| Yards | 2,245 | 2,200 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 187.1 | 183.3 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 244 | 317 |
| Completions | 129 | 188 |
| Completion % | 52.9% | 59.3% |
| Yards | 1,186 | 2,087 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.9 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 99.60 | 120.38 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 745 | 796 |
| Yards | 3,431 | 4,287 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 285.9 | 357.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 20 |
| Yards | 91 | 137 |
| Average | 9.1 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 20 |
| Yards | 549 | 482 |
| Average | 22.9 | 24.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 44 |
| Yards | 2,516 | 1,811 |
| Average | 41.2 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 24 | 43 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 12 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 52 | 69 |
| Yards | 456 | 557 |
| Yards / Game | 38.0 | 46.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:13 | 30:47 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 163 |
| Conversions | 55 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 31.8% | 43.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 24 |
| Conversions | 22 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 59.5% | 58.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 27 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 21 | 40 |
| Score % | 77.8% | 87.0% |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 28 |
| TD % | 48.1% | 60.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 22 |
| Made | 11 | 15 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 34 |
| Made | 20 | 33 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.