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VAN
Vanderbilt
CommodoresBalancedSoutheastern Conference2-10#133 (-15.11)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
1· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
10· FPer play
3· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
20· DPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.106
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.149
Defensive EPA/play
+0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.7%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.220
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.100
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.28
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-4.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.71
own return game
Return Defense
-0.78
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#133
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#124
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#52
recruiting 81 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense13th
Opp-adjusted defense20th
Offensive EPA/play10th
Defensive EPA/play20th
Offensive success rate3th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive5th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense3942Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3913Nevada2023OA -0.179 / +0.003similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3864Arizona State2023OA -0.086 / -0.041similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3785Wisconsin2026OA -0.037 / -0.038similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate374
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs East Tennessee State | 3-23 | L | -21.5 | L | - | - |
| 2 | @ Colorado State | 24-21 | W | +3.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Stanford | 23-41 | L | +7.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Georgia | 0-62 | L | +36.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 5 | vs UConn | 30-28 | W | -14.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 6 | @ Florida | 0-42 | L | +38.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 7 | @ South Carolina | 20-21 | L | +18.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 8 | vs Mississippi State | 6-45 | L | +20.5 | L | 51 | P |
| 9 | vs Missouri | 28-37 | L | +16.3 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Kentucky | 17-34 | L | +21.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Ole Miss | 17-31 | L | +36.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 13 | @ Tennessee | 21-45 | L | +31.5 | W | 63 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.117 | 13th | +0.058 | 23th |
| Red Zone | -0.122 | 30th | -0.232 | 90th |
| Third Down | -0.034 | 28th | +0.059 | 53th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.148 | 11th | +0.060 | 24th |
| First Half | -0.153 | 11th | +0.113 | 16th |
| Second Half | -0.081 | 19th | -0.006 | 50th |
| Early Downs | -0.207 | 3th | +0.097 | 12th |
| Passing Downs | -0.046 | 39th | +0.056 | 32th |
| Standard Downs | -0.161 | 6th | +0.059 | 21th |
| Goal to Go | -0.178 | 26th | +0.287 | 9th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
14.4%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
312.8
Pts/Drive
1.28
3rd Down%
31.9%
3&Out%
32.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 189 | 430 |
| Points / Game | 15.8 | 35.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 212 | 261 |
| Rushing | 85 | 115 |
| Passing | 103 | 131 |
| Penalty | 24 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 423 | 421 |
| Yards | 1,482 | 2,317 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 123.5 | 193.1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 392 |
| Completions | 226 | 257 |
| Completion % | 55.4% | 65.6% |
| Yards | 2,272 | 3,171 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.6 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 29 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 105.82 | 151.29 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 831 | 813 |
| Yards | 3,754 | 5,488 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 6.8 |
| Yards / Game | 312.8 | 457.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 18 |
| Yards | 45 | 274 |
| Average | 6.4 | 15.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 20 |
| Yards | 324 | 487 |
| Average | 15.4 | 24.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 74 | 40 |
| Yards | 3,104 | 1,803 |
| Average | 41.9 | 45.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 14 |
| Yards | 74 | 263 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 10 |
| Lost | 5 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 91 |
| Yards | 508 | 803 |
| Yards / Game | 42.3 | 66.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:04 | 29:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 188 | 143 |
| Conversions | 60 | 51 |
| Conversion % | 31.9% | 35.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 21 |
| Conversions | 19 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 63.3% | 61.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 63 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 24 | 49 |
| Score % | 77.4% | 77.8% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 37 |
| TD % | 51.6% | 58.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 22 |
| Made | 14 | 18 |
| Pct | 73.7% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 52 |
| Made | 15 | 52 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 2 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.