Fourth Down Data
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NEV

Nevada

Wolf PackBalanced
Mountain West Conference2-10#135 (-11.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

1· FOverall
Offense
0· FRating
4· FPer play
7· FConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
45· CPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.179
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.155
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#135
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#131
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 59 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
46th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense4372Kansas2020OA -0.097 / -0.019similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4263Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense4014Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3995Illinois2017OA -0.133 / -0.054similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense394

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ USC14-66L+38.0L66.5O
2vs Idaho6-33L+2.5L55U
3vs Kansas24-31L+28.0W58U
4@ Texas State24-35L+17.0W60U
5@ Fresno State9-27L+24.5W50.5U
7vs UNLV27-45L+9.0L53.5O
8@ San Diego State6-0W+13.5W47.5U
9vs New Mexico34-24W-1.0W49.5O
10vs Hawai'i14-27L-3.5L50.5U
11@ Utah State24-41L+16.5L56O
12@ Colorado State20-30L+11.5W47.5O
13vs Wyoming6-42L+11.0L41.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off6thRed Zone Off1th3rd Down Off10thPass Def50thRush Def36thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1167th+0.02544th
Red Zone-0.3371th-0.17486th
Third Down-0.06710th+0.09371th
No Garbage Time-0.1552th+0.02643th
First Half-0.13610th-0.06278th
Second Half-0.09517th+0.11411th
Early Downs-0.13510th+0.02524th
Passing Downs-0.07120th+0.03150th
Standard Downs-0.1446th+0.02336th
Goal to Go-0.03537th+0.32815th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
300.0
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
30.4%
3&Out%
30.1%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNevadaOpponents
Scoring
Points208401
Points / Game17.333.4
First Downs
Total200253
Rushing86108
Passing84124
Penalty3021
Rushing
Attempts443423
Yards1,4982,253
Yards / Carry3.45.3
Yards / Game124.8187.8
Touchdowns1423
Passing
Attempts345346
Completions191225
Completion %55.4%65.0%
Yards2,1023,049
Yards / Attempt6.18.8
Touchdowns624
Interceptions129
Passer Rating105.32156.74
Total Offense
Plays788769
Yards3,6005,302
Yards / Play4.66.9
Yards / Game300.0441.8
Punt Returns
Returns719
Yards118111
Average16.95.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2813
Yards484236
Average17.318.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6547
Yards2,6701,972
Average41.142.0
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards287181
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles2415
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties8183
Yards702770
Yards / Game58.564.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2029:40
Third Downs
Attempts171147
Conversions5261
Conversion %30.4%41.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2318
Conversions1011
Conversion %43.5%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips3544
Scores (TD + FG)2837
Score %80.0%84.1%
Touchdowns1627
TD %45.7%61.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2019
Made1517
Pct75.0%89.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1948
Made1948
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →