Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-10#102 (-9.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
2· FPer play
12· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
37· DPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.133
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.263
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.9%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.289
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.146
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 45 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
8th
Opp-adjusted defense
32th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kent State2017OA -0.276 / -0.054similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3962Nevada2023OA -0.179 / +0.003similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3953Eastern Michigan2023OA -0.162 / -0.059similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3914Charlotte2025OA -0.212 / -0.095similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3905Rutgers2018OA -0.171 / -0.005similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate383

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ball State24-21W-5.5L54.5U
2vs Western Kentucky20-7W+6.0W51U
3@ South Florida23-47L+16.5L55O
5vs Nebraska6-28L+6.0L47U
6@ Iowa16-45L+16.0L42.5O
7vs Rutgers24-35L+1.5L48O
8@ Minnesota17-24L+14.5W49U
9vs Wisconsin10-24L+28.5W51.5U
10@ Purdue10-29L+14.0L49.5U
11vs Indiana14-24L+10.5W51.5U
12@ Ohio State14-52L+41.0W54O
13vs Northwestern7-42L+16.5L46O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off4thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off5thPass Def38thRush Def41thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2553th+0.00543th
Red Zone+0.00150th+0.18014th
Third Down-0.3975th+0.01545th
No Garbage Time-0.2712th+0.02140th
First Half-0.2136th+0.03137th
Second Half-0.2953th-0.02249th
Early Downs-0.2053th-0.00537th
Passing Downs-0.3212th+0.02638th
Standard Downs-0.2174th-0.00541th
Goal to Go-0.07738th+0.18917th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
14.4%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
280.4
Pts/Drive
1.17
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
33.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points185378
Points / Game15.431.5
First Downs
Total174269
Rushing72137
Passing83109
Penalty1923
Rushing
Attempts386548
Yards1,2672,622
Yards / Carry3.34.8
Yards / Game105.6218.5
Touchdowns1127
Passing
Attempts339339
Completions168201
Completion %49.6%59.3%
Yards2,0982,399
Yards / Attempt6.27.1
Touchdowns820
Interceptions199
Passer Rating98.12132.90
Total Offense
Plays725887
Yards3,3655,021
Yards / Play4.65.7
Yards / Game280.4418.4
Punt Returns
Returns1230
Yards74143
Average6.24.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3611
Yards693212
Average19.319.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7858
Yards3,2682,363
Average41.940.7
Interception Returns
Returns919
Yards105335
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2423
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties8575
Yards768703
Yards / Game64.058.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1531:45
Third Downs
Attempts173174
Conversions5876
Conversion %33.5%43.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1018
Conversions412
Conversion %40.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips2759
Scores (TD + FG)2448
Score %88.9%81.4%
Touchdowns1440
TD %51.9%67.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1713
Made1210
Pct70.6%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1749
Made1748
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →