Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference6-7#121 (-6.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
4· FPer play
6· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
53· CPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.162
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.154
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.93
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#94
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
4th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
8th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3942Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3913Illinois2017OA -0.133 / -0.054similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3914Syracuse2020OA -0.111 / +0.002similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate3765Michigan2026OA -0.056 / +0.027similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, passing offense373

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Howard33-23W----
2@ Minnesota6-25L+20.0W48U
3vs Massachusetts19-17W-7.0L51U
4@ Jacksonville State0-21L+6.5L52.5U
5@ Central Michigan23-26L+7.5W47.5O
6vs Ball State24-10W-2.5W43U
7vs Kent State28-14W-10.0W41.5O
8@ Northern Illinois13-20L+12.5W45.5U
9vs Western Michigan21-45L+3.0L45.5O
11@ Toledo23-49L-3.5L39O
12vs Akron30-27W+5.0W37.5U
13@ Buffalo24-11W----
17@ South Alabama10-59L+16.3L46.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off6thRush Off25thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off11thPass Def24thRush Def67thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11210th+0.00151th
Red Zone+0.30096th-0.12976th
Third Down-0.05611th+0.01684th
No Garbage Time-0.1298th+0.01847th
First Half-0.07521th+0.07325th
Second Half-0.1568th-0.07579th
Early Downs-0.12016th-0.00537th
Passing Downs-0.1846th+0.12924th
Standard Downs-0.06925th-0.06367th
Goal to Go+0.40597th-0.21378th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
9.2
Yards/Game
262.8
Pts/Drive
1.45
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
30.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points254347
Points / Game19.526.7
First Downs
Total206289
Rushing91129
Passing89127
Penalty2633
Rushing
Attempts428513
Yards1,4402,452
Yards / Carry3.44.8
Yards / Game110.8188.6
Touchdowns1824
Passing
Attempts358387
Completions197228
Completion %55.0%58.9%
Yards1,9762,769
Yards / Attempt5.57.2
Touchdowns1017
Interceptions128
Passer Rating103.91129.38
Total Offense
Plays786900
Yards3,4165,221
Yards / Play4.35.8
Yards / Game262.8401.6
Punt Returns
Returns1318
Yards142147
Average10.98.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3437
Yards729654
Average21.417.7
Touchdowns30
Punting
Punts6843
Yards3,0601,867
Average45.043.4
Interception Returns
Returns812
Yards6175
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties8184
Yards777747
Yards / Game59.857.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0230:55
Third Downs
Attempts179171
Conversions6368
Conversion %35.2%39.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1934
Conversions1012
Conversion %52.6%35.3%
Red Zone
Trips3859
Scores (TD + FG)3346
Score %86.8%78.0%
Touchdowns2333
TD %60.5%55.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1315
Pct76.5%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2841
Made2540
Pct89.3%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →