Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangeBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-10#105 (-5.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
1· FRating
2· FPer play
2· FConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
47· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
3· FRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.111
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.313
Defensive EPA/play
+0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.1%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.347
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.90
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.53
own return game
Return Defense
+0.28
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#109
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 69 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
48th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri State2026OA -0.099 / +0.017similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3872Rutgers2018OA -0.171 / -0.005similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3853Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive EPA3754Eastern Michigan2023OA -0.162 / -0.059similar: pass defense, turnover rate, run defense3755Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA374

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ North Carolina6-31L+22.0L65U
3@ Pittsburgh10-21L+21.5W50U
4vs Georgia Tech37-20W+8.0W52.5O
6vs Duke24-38L+2.0L51.5O
7vs Liberty21-38L+3.5L52.5O
8@ Clemson21-47L+46.0W61.75O
9vs Wake Forest14-38L+11.5L59.5U
10vs Boston College13-16L+14.0W52.5U
12@ Louisville0-30L----
13vs NC State29-36L+14.5W51O
14@ Notre Dame21-45L+33.5W51.75O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
1-10
9.1%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off1thRed Zone Off3th3rd Down Off13thPass Def41thRush Def62thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2872th+0.01855th
Red Zone-0.4333th-0.15283th
Third Down-0.19113th+0.11140th
No Garbage Time-0.3301th+0.03948th
First Half-0.2532th+0.04341th
Second Half-0.3251th-0.01460th
Early Downs-0.2422th-0.05272th
Passing Downs-0.2922th+0.08641th
Standard Downs-0.2831th-0.01462th
Goal to Go-0.8402th+0.29615th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
9.8
Yards/Game
265.3
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
26.1%
3&Out%
31.1%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points196360
Points / Game17.832.7
First Downs
Total145282
Rushing53124
Passing80130
Penalty1228
Rushing
Attempts320504
Yards1,0122,300
Yards / Carry3.24.6
Yards / Game92.0209.1
Touchdowns524
Passing
Attempts336373
Completions173244
Completion %51.5%65.4%
Yards1,9062,803
Yards / Attempt5.77.5
Touchdowns1519
Interceptions1213
Passer Rating106.73138.38
Total Offense
Plays656877
Yards2,9185,103
Yards / Play4.45.8
Yards / Game265.3463.9
Punt Returns
Returns1326
Yards185170
Average14.26.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3118
Yards725398
Average23.422.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7445
Yards3,3142,005
Average44.844.6
Interception Returns
Returns1312
Yards265142
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1223
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties7771
Yards728615
Yards / Game66.255.9
Time of Possession
Per Game24:1735:43
Third Downs
Attempts153173
Conversions4082
Conversion %26.1%47.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1817
Conversions611
Conversion %33.3%64.7%
Red Zone
Trips2150
Scores (TD + FG)1440
Score %66.7%80.0%
Touchdowns926
TD %42.9%52.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1124
Made916
Pct81.8%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2440
Made2340
Pct95.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts05
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →