Fourth Down Data
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SAC

Sacramento State

HornetsBalanced
Mid-American Conference1-1#88 (-2.05)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
9· FRating
8· FPer play
31· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
73· BPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.255
Defensive EPA/play
-0.244
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
38.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.30
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Sacramento State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
18th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, run defense4512Eastern Michigan2026OA -0.077 / +0.050similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate4383Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate4254Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3675Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense366

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Eastern Michigan17-28L+9.0L53.5U
1vs Mississippi Valley State52-0W----
2@ Fresno State------
3vs North Dakota State------
4vs Massachusetts------
6@ Bowling Green------
7vs Ohio------
8@ Ball State------
9vs Kent State------
10vs Toledo------
11@ Central Michigan------
13@ Hawai'i------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off36thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off23thPass Def89thRush Def57thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15320th-0.27381th
Red Zone+0.14957th+0.24533th
Third Down-0.27323th-0.62285th
No Garbage Time-0.2559th-0.24173th
First Half-0.4287th-0.33480th
Second Half+0.15366th-0.18664th
Early Downs-0.16220th+0.01234th
Passing Downs-0.35712th-0.47289th
Standard Downs-0.04836th-0.13257th
Goal to Go+0.16737th+0.07766th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.4%Rush 43.6%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
9.0
Yards/Game
362.0
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
35.7%
3&Out%
31.8%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Sacramento State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSacramento StateOpponents
Scoring
Points6928
Points / Game34.514.0
First Downs
Total3927
Rushing189
Passing1614
Penalty54
Rushing
Attempts5864
Yards252173
Yards / Carry4.32.7
Yards / Game126.086.5
Touchdowns42
Passing
Attempts7557
Completions4436
Completion %58.7%63.2%
Yards472322
Yards / Attempt6.35.6
Touchdowns42
Interceptions20
Passer Rating123.80122.19
Total Offense
Plays133121
Yards724495
Yards / Play5.44.1
Yards / Game362.0247.5
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards230
Average7.7—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns18
Yards15120
Average15.015.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts1017
Yards395509
Average39.529.9
Interception Returns
Returns02
Yards01
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles33
Lost22
Penalties
Penalties1415
Yards120146
Yards / Game60.073.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2029:40
Third Downs
Attempts2830
Conversions107
Conversion %35.7%23.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts31
Conversions20
Conversion %66.7%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips83
Scores (TD + FG)72
Score %87.5%66.7%
Touchdowns52
TD %62.5%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts32
Made20
Pct66.7%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts94
Made94
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →