Fourth Down Data
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BGSU

Bowling Green

FalconsBalanced
Mid-American Conference4-8#111 (-6.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
11· FPer play
14· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
44· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.136
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.142
Defensive EPA/play
-0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.099
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.96
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#120
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
2th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense4062North Carolina2025OA -0.056 / -0.062similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3983Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, rushing offense3974Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3735Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, pass defense371

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tennessee6-38L----
2vs South Alabama19-22L+14.5W52U
3vs Murray State27-10W+2.5W46U
4@ Minnesota14-10W+30.5W51U
5@ Kent State20-27L+16.5W55.75U
6vs Akron20-35L-14.0L46O
7@ Northern Illinois26-34L+9.0W45.5O
8vs Eastern Michigan24-55L+3.0L49O
9@ Buffalo56-44W+13.5W51.5O
11vs Toledo17-49L+17.0L52U
12@ Miami (OH)7-34L+6.0W48.5U
13vs Ohio21-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS8-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off14thRed Zone Off15th3rd Down Off26thPass Def92thRush Def13thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.13210th+0.00044th
Red Zone-0.19915th+0.2602th
Third Down-0.04526th+0.10743th
No Garbage Time-0.14512th+0.00043th
First Half-0.1858th-0.07570th
Second Half-0.07720th+0.07021th
Early Downs-0.08521th+0.05820th
Passing Downs-0.16513th-0.21592th
Standard Downs-0.11114th+0.10413th
Goal to Go-0.07943th+0.22517th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.4%Rush 47.6%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.1
Yards/Game
317.2
Pts/Drive
1.64
3rd Down%
34.1%
3&Out%
26.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBowling GreenOpponents
Scoring
Points257368
Points / Game21.430.7
First Downs
Total188255
Rushing69135
Passing10494
Penalty1526
Rushing
Attempts370542
Yards1,2282,254
Yards / Carry3.34.2
Yards / Game102.3187.8
Touchdowns1530
Passing
Attempts407308
Completions238180
Completion %58.5%58.4%
Yards2,5782,234
Yards / Attempt6.37.3
Touchdowns1215
Interceptions912
Passer Rating116.99127.65
Total Offense
Plays777850
Yards3,8064,488
Yards / Play4.95.3
Yards / Game317.2374.0
Punt Returns
Returns2129
Yards188211
Average9.07.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3836
Yards703790
Average18.521.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6952
Yards2,7491,996
Average39.838.4
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards15866
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1514
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties9657
Yards853560
Yards / Game71.146.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4030:20
Third Downs
Attempts179170
Conversions6169
Conversion %34.1%40.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1824
Conversions610
Conversion %33.3%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips3549
Scores (TD + FG)2945
Score %82.9%91.8%
Touchdowns1836
TD %51.4%73.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2018
Made1914
Pct95.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2745
Made2644
Pct96.3%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →