Fourth Down Data
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MD

Maryland

TerrapinsPass-Heavy
Big Ten Conference4-8#83 (-4.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
25· DRating
29· DPer play
14· FConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
51· CPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.071
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
-0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.040
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.126
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 50 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Maryland ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2025OA -0.056 / -0.062similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, passing offense4212Bowling Green2021OA -0.136 / +0.005similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, rushing offense3973Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: run defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3804Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3705San Diego State2023OA -0.047 / -0.059similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate366

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida Atlantic39-7W-14.5W61U
2vs Northern Illinois20-9W----
3vs Towson44-17W-29.5L50.5O
4@ Wisconsin27-10W+10.0W44.5U
6vs Washington20-24L-12.5L41.5O
7vs Nebraska31-34L+4.5W68.5U
8@ UCLA17-20L+3.5W52.5U
10vs Indiana10-55L+31.0L61.5O
11@ Rutgers20-35L+7.5L65.5U
12@ Illinois6-24L+13.5L44.5U
13vs Michigan20-45L+22.5L60.5O
14@ Michigan State28-38L+4.0L49O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off7thRed Zone Off1th3rd Down Off13thPass Def83thRush Def32thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10513th-0.01851th
Red Zone-0.4511th-0.06664th
Third Down-0.17113th+0.07749th
No Garbage Time-0.06130th-0.02153th
First Half-0.03836th-0.07774th
Second Half-0.1804th+0.04230th
Early Downs-0.05628th+0.01034th
Passing Downs-0.06835th-0.12983th
Standard Downs-0.1267th+0.03532th
Goal to Go-0.6311th-0.36187th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.7%Rush 38.3%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
360.0
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Maryland vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarylandOpponents
Scoring
Points282318
Points / Game23.526.5
First Downs
Total221271
Rushing65118
Passing139126
Penalty1727
Rushing
Attempts305479
Yards1,2522,107
Yards / Carry4.14.4
Yards / Game104.3175.6
Touchdowns913
Passing
Attempts491383
Completions284242
Completion %57.8%63.2%
Yards3,0682,718
Yards / Attempt6.27.1
Touchdowns1825
Interceptions919
Passer Rating118.76134.42
Total Offense
Plays796862
Yards4,3204,825
Yards / Play5.45.6
Yards / Game360.0402.1
Punt Returns
Returns1811
Yards13195
Average7.38.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1740
Yards252947
Average14.823.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5643
Yards2,4731,770
Average44.241.2
Interception Returns
Returns199
Yards33564
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles73
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties7260
Yards655506
Yards / Game54.642.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5833:02
Third Downs
Attempts172170
Conversions6473
Conversion %37.2%42.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2531
Conversions916
Conversion %36.0%51.6%
Red Zone
Trips3748
Scores (TD + FG)3038
Score %81.1%79.2%
Touchdowns1427
TD %37.8%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2418
Made2113
Pct87.5%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3139
Made3139
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →