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SDSU
San Diego State
AztecsRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference4-8#92 (-3.16)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
32· DOverall
Offense
20· DRating
23· DPer play
32· DConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
29· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.067
Defensive EPA/play
+0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.124
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#105
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
recruiting 24 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense29th
Opp-adjusted defense25th
Offensive EPA/play23th
Defensive EPA/play29th
Offensive success rate29th
Explosiveness6th
Defensive havoc20th
Points per drive23th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wisconsin2026OA -0.037 / -0.038similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense4192Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3673UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3604Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3475South Florida2020OA -0.047 / -0.026similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense346
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Ohio | 20-13 | W | -2.3 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 1 | vs Idaho State | 36-28 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs UCLA | 10-35 | L | +13.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Oregon State | 9-26 | L | +24.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Boise State | 31-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Air Force | 10-49 | L | +10.5 | L | 43 | O |
| 7 | @ Hawai'i | 41-34 | W | -6.0 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Nevada | 0-6 | L | -13.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Utah State | 24-32 | L | +2.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 11 | @ Colorado State | 19-22 | L | +4.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 12 | @ San José State | 13-24 | L | +14.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Fresno State | 33-18 | W | +5.5 | W | 47 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.081 | 16th | +0.054 | 27th |
| Red Zone | -0.115 | 22th | +0.164 | 15th |
| Third Down | -0.057 | 10th | +0.122 | 63th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.074 | 19th | +0.056 | 27th |
| First Half | -0.147 | 6th | +0.020 | 41th |
| Second Half | -0.019 | 41th | +0.092 | 21th |
| Early Downs | -0.052 | 41th | +0.059 | 13th |
| Passing Downs | -0.189 | 5th | -0.033 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | -0.025 | 46th | +0.092 | 10th |
| Goal to Go | -0.088 | 31th | +0.374 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.3%Rush 58.7%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
326.0
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
21.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San Diego State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 246 | 321 |
| Points / Game | 20.5 | 26.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 206 | 252 |
| Rushing | 97 | 113 |
| Passing | 97 | 121 |
| Penalty | 12 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 454 | 402 |
| Yards | 1,851 | 1,989 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 154.3 | 165.8 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 319 | 392 |
| Completions | 202 | 222 |
| Completion % | 63.3% | 56.6% |
| Yards | 2,061 | 2,894 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 121.67 | 125.99 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 773 | 794 |
| Yards | 3,912 | 4,883 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 326.0 | 406.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 13 |
| Yards | 185 | 50 |
| Average | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 27 |
| Yards | 589 | 590 |
| Average | 20.3 | 21.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 50 |
| Yards | 2,449 | 1,973 |
| Average | 45.4 | 39.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 206 | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 59 | 59 |
| Yards | 528 | 525 |
| Yards / Game | 44.0 | 43.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:40 | 27:13 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 152 |
| Conversions | 61 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 41.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 17 |
| Conversions | 13 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 56.5% | 52.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 35 |
| Score % | 78.4% | 89.7% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 25 |
| TD % | 51.4% | 64.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 22 |
| Made | 19 | 17 |
| Pct | 73.1% | 77.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 34 |
| Made | 25 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.