Fourth Down Data
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UCLA

UCLA

BruinsBalanced
Big Ten Conference3-9#101 (-5.23)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
38· DRating
36· DPer play
50· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
13· FPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.086
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
+0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.139
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 86 spots higher
38 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCLA ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
14th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4312Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: run defense, defensive success rate, turnover rate3983UTEP2019OA -0.113 / -0.192similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3934Western Kentucky2026OA -0.011 / -0.038similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3815Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate381

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Cincinnati17-26L-14.0L62U
2@ Oklahoma21-49L+31.0W66O
3vs Fresno State14-38L+2.5L50.5O
5@ Colorado16-38L+9.0L56.5U
6vs Washington24-31L+21.0W53.5O
7@ California37-7W+6.5W53.5U
8vs Arizona31-30W-10.0L55O
9vs Utah10-41L+10.5L54.5U
10@ Oregon21-42L+10.5L59.5O
11@ Arizona State28-31L+11.5W64.5U
12vs USC34-27W+2.5W55O
13vs Stanford42-49L+7.0P61O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off30thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off23thPass Def30thRush Def22thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02534th+0.08418th
Red Zone-0.04533th+0.15921th
Third Down-0.08423th+0.14230th
No Garbage Time-0.02934th+0.10914th
First Half-0.02439th+0.06723th
Second Half-0.02636th+0.10118th
Early Downs-0.04630th+0.07418th
Passing Downs+0.00351th+0.09430th
Standard Downs-0.03930th+0.08022th
Goal to Go+0.05949th+0.27717th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
392.6
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — UCLA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCLAOpponents
Scoring
Points295409
Points / Game24.634.1
First Downs
Total253281
Rushing98121
Passing134135
Penalty2125
Rushing
Attempts451520
Yards1,8582,393
Yards / Carry4.14.6
Yards / Game154.8199.4
Touchdowns2031
Passing
Attempts403371
Completions239226
Completion %59.3%60.9%
Yards2,8532,946
Yards / Attempt7.17.9
Touchdowns1319
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating124.45138.59
Total Offense
Plays854891
Yards4,7115,339
Yards / Play5.56.0
Yards / Game392.6444.9
Punt Returns
Returns1119
Yards100325
Average9.117.1
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns922
Yards248572
Average27.626.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6049
Yards2,6742,050
Average44.641.8
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards8137
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1512
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties8265
Yards684570
Yards / Game57.047.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3432:26
Third Downs
Attempts175177
Conversions6685
Conversion %37.7%48.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2619
Conversions1410
Conversion %53.8%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips3757
Scores (TD + FG)3051
Score %81.1%89.5%
Touchdowns2239
TD %59.5%68.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made1414
Pct73.7%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3550
Made3549
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →