Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#92 (-5.95)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
31· DRating
55· CPer play
78· BConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
26· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.005
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
49.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.63
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 48 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
41th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri2020OA -0.009 / -0.039similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4252Nebraska2025OA -0.008 / -0.055similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, TD drive rate4003UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: run defense, defensive success rate, turnover rate4004Eastern Michigan2021OA -0.010 / -0.137similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive success rate3535Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense350

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colorado State17-3W-3.0W68.5U
2vs Texas State37-3W-36.0L56.5U
3vs Northern Colorado41-21W-38.0L--
4vs Washington10-37L+11.0L54.5U
5@ UCLA23-27L+7.5W66.5U
6vs Arizona42-45L-7.0L59.5O
7@ Oregon State36-33W-9.5L56.5O
8@ Washington State0-28L+9.0L52U
9vs California44-28W-4.0W56O
10@ Arizona State30-41L+6.5L59O
11vs USC24-38L+14.0P61.5O
13@ Utah13-34L+9.5L57U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLPL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off58thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off48thPass Def20thRush Def38thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00955th+0.04328th
Red Zone-0.13520th-0.08165th
Third Down-0.02048th-0.00850th
No Garbage Time+0.01159th+0.05426th
First Half-0.02249th+0.06529th
Second Half+0.00356th+0.01833th
Early Downs-0.00562th+0.01032th
Passing Downs+0.00759th+0.12420th
Standard Downs-0.01858th+0.00138th
Goal to Go+0.49997th+0.05739th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.1%Rush 54.9%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
417.6
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
41.8%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points317338
Points / Game26.428.2
First Downs
Total271279
Rushing124132
Passing128128
Penalty1919
Rushing
Attempts499477
Yards1,8862,496
Yards / Carry3.85.2
Yards / Game157.2208.0
Touchdowns1723
Passing
Attempts410407
Completions244227
Completion %59.5%55.8%
Yards3,1252,911
Yards / Attempt7.67.2
Touchdowns1917
Interceptions98
Passer Rating134.44125.71
Total Offense
Plays909884
Yards5,0115,407
Yards / Play5.56.1
Yards / Game417.6450.6
Punt Returns
Returns1915
Yards20075
Average10.55.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2724
Yards585478
Average21.719.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5858
Yards2,4572,310
Average42.439.8
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards185116
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1415
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties7564
Yards668601
Yards / Game55.750.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5131:09
Third Downs
Attempts189173
Conversions7973
Conversion %41.8%42.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2616
Conversions136
Conversion %50.0%37.5%
Red Zone
Trips4447
Scores (TD + FG)3740
Score %84.1%85.1%
Touchdowns2526
TD %56.8%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2222
Made1715
Pct77.3%68.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3641
Made3639
Pct100.0%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →