Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference7-6#59 (+1.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
57· CRating
43· CPer play
60· CConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
15· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.089
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.101
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#64
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 35 spots higher
23 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
15th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3992Missouri2020OA -0.009 / -0.039similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3633Eastern Michigan2021OA -0.010 / -0.137similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3404UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3295Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense316

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Cincinnati20-17W----
2vs Akron68-0W-34.0W47.5O
3vs Houston Christian59-7W----
4vs Michigan27-30L+2.5L53.5O
6vs Michigan State38-27W-13.5L43.5O
7@ Maryland34-31W-7.0L47.5U
8@ Minnesota6-24L----
9vs Northwestern28-21W-7.5L44.5O
10vs USC17-21L+4.5W59.5U
11@ UCLA28-21W+1.0W45O
13@ Penn State10-37L+6.0L39.5O
14vs Iowa16-40L----
19@ Utah22-44L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off53thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off79thPass Def7thRush Def42thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01860th+0.06024th
Red Zone-0.16317th+0.3221th
Third Down+0.26379th+0.05153th
No Garbage Time-0.00547th+0.08216th
First Half+0.07573th+0.01740th
Second Half-0.04436th+0.10311th
Early Downs-0.00550th-0.01145th
Passing Downs+0.03962th+0.1577th
Standard Downs+0.01053th+0.01242th
Goal to Go-0.22714th+0.21420th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
370.5
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
17.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points373320
Points / Game28.724.6
First Downs
Total264233
Rushing116126
Passing13183
Penalty1724
Rushing
Attempts451473
Yards1,8972,280
Yards / Carry4.24.8
Yards / Game145.9175.4
Touchdowns2030
Passing
Attempts378314
Completions260183
Completion %68.8%58.3%
Yards2,9202,003
Yards / Attempt7.76.4
Touchdowns239
Interceptions76
Passer Rating150.05117.50
Total Offense
Plays829787
Yards4,8174,283
Yards / Play5.85.4
Yards / Game370.5329.5
Punt Returns
Returns256
Yards34123
Average13.63.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3128
Yards780459
Average25.216.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3755
Yards1,4592,255
Average39.441.0
Interception Returns
Returns67
Yards2178
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1313
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties6062
Yards565528
Yards / Game43.540.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:25
Third Downs
Attempts162168
Conversions7466
Conversion %45.7%39.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2824
Conversions1016
Conversion %35.7%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips5338
Scores (TD + FG)4537
Score %84.9%97.4%
Touchdowns3030
TD %56.6%78.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1916
Made1613
Pct84.2%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4537
Made4535
Pct100.0%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →