Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-5#111 (-6.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
27· DRating
49· CPer play
68· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
16· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
3· FRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.002
Defensive EPA/play
+0.122
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.120
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#91
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 85 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
49th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
52th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4252North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: pass defense, havoc rate, passing offense4003UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3824Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3725Eastern Michigan2021OA -0.010 / -0.137similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense365

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs Alabama19-38L+28.0W56O
5@ Tennessee12-35L+12.5L48.5U
6vs LSU45-41W+13.5W54O
8vs Kentucky20-10W+5.5W47U
9@ Florida17-41L+12.5L61.5U
12@ South Carolina17-10W-6.0W57U
13vs Vanderbilt41-0W-14.0W51U
14vs Arkansas50-48W-2.5L51.5O
15vs Georgia14-49L+14.0L55.5O
16@ Mississippi State32-51L-1.0L49.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5
50.0%
O/U Record
5-5
50.0%
Straight Up
5-5
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off34thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off39thPass Def33thRush Def20thRed Zone Def3th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02254th+0.08823th
Red Zone-0.01950th+0.3623th
Third Down+0.00639th-0.02070th
No Garbage Time-0.00347th+0.11916th
First Half-0.00346th+0.10824th
Second Half+0.05262th+0.06737th
Early Downs-0.00650th+0.10710th
Passing Downs+0.14071th+0.11333th
Standard Downs-0.03734th+0.07620th
Goal to Go+0.08955th+0.17428th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
402.0
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points267323
Points / Game26.732.3
First Downs
Total222219
Rushing7592
Passing130108
Penalty1719
Rushing
Attempts351358
Yards1,3521,622
Yards / Carry3.94.5
Yards / Game135.2162.2
Touchdowns2119
Passing
Attempts363311
Completions246182
Completion %67.8%58.5%
Yards2,6682,458
Yards / Attempt7.37.9
Touchdowns921
Interceptions64
Passer Rating134.38144.62
Total Offense
Plays714669
Yards4,0204,080
Yards / Play5.66.1
Yards / Game402.0408.0
Punt Returns
Returns119
Yards4521
Average4.12.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns103
Yards16351
Average16.317.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3943
Yards1,6801,831
Average43.142.6
Interception Returns
Returns46
Yards6796
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1711
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties5856
Yards499457
Yards / Game49.945.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4729:13
Third Downs
Attempts141125
Conversions6147
Conversion %43.3%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1818
Conversions1013
Conversion %55.6%72.2%
Red Zone
Trips3437
Scores (TD + FG)3234
Score %94.1%91.9%
Touchdowns2030
TD %58.8%81.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2013
Made1710
Pct85.0%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2841
Made2839
Pct100.0%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →