Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-8#107 (-6.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
41· CRating
55· CPer play
56· CConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
13· FPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.145
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.021
Defensive EPA/play
+0.109
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.088
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
6th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, run defense4372Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4263UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, run defense3944Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3945Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, pass defense379

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Liberty10-52L-5.0L59O
2vs Florida International20-28L+3.0L51.5U
3@ Charlotte25-28L-1.0L47.5O
4vs Virginia Tech49-35W+28.5W52.5O
5@ East Carolina35-37L+7.0W61.5O
6@ Florida Atlantic33-52L+13.5L63.5O
7vs Marshall20-42L+3.5L57O
8@ Western Kentucky37-34W+4.0W55O
9vs Middle Tennessee17-51L+4.0L62O
11vs North Texas34-31W+14.0W67U
12vs VMI77-14W-31.5W73.5O
13@ Rice13-27L-7.5L61.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off40thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off72thPass Def14thRush Def21thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00450th+0.10814th
Red Zone-0.09326th+0.13026th
Third Down+0.15272th+0.16625th
No Garbage Time+0.02456th+0.09815th
First Half-0.01542th+0.08022th
Second Half+0.02158th+0.1389th
Early Downs-0.00653th+0.1168th
Passing Downs+0.05967th+0.16314th
Standard Downs-0.02540th+0.08121th
Goal to Go-0.21111th+0.3678th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.0%Rush 47.0%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
427.8
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
23.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points370431
Points / Game30.835.9
First Downs
Total280291
Rushing89121
Passing156143
Penalty3527
Rushing
Attempts425499
Yards1,5692,597
Yards / Carry3.75.2
Yards / Game130.8216.4
Touchdowns2431
Passing
Attempts480407
Completions293248
Completion %61.0%60.9%
Yards3,5643,060
Yards / Attempt7.47.5
Touchdowns2125
Interceptions129
Passer Rating132.85139.94
Total Offense
Plays905906
Yards5,1335,657
Yards / Play5.76.2
Yards / Game427.8471.4
Punt Returns
Returns1611
Yards19147
Average11.94.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3832
Yards754653
Average19.820.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5655
Yards2,2092,269
Average39.441.3
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards200189
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles128
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties6171
Yards586726
Yards / Game48.860.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2230:37
Third Downs
Attempts174175
Conversions6470
Conversion %36.8%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3030
Conversions1714
Conversion %56.7%46.7%
Red Zone
Trips5842
Scores (TD + FG)4735
Score %81.0%83.3%
Touchdowns3730
TD %63.8%71.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1811
Made148
Pct77.8%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4153
Made4051
Pct97.6%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts66
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →