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STAN
Stanford
CardinalBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference4-8#84 (-4.55)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
38· DOverall
Offense
44· CRating
34· DPer play
38· DConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
14· FPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 65 spots higher
31 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense58th
Opp-adjusted defense28th
Offensive EPA/play34th
Defensive EPA/play14th
Offensive success rate34th
Explosiveness31th
Defensive havoc42th
Points per drive21th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Baylor2023OA -0.051 / -0.087similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4232Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3953Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, pass defense3794UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3665Missouri2020OA -0.009 / -0.039similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA363
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northwestern | 17-7 | W | -6.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 2 | @ USC | 20-45 | L | +3.0 | L | 43 | O |
| 3 | @ UCF | 27-45 | L | +9.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 4 | vs Oregon | 6-21 | L | +13.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Oregon State | 31-28 | W | -3.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 6 | vs Washington | 23-13 | W | +13.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 8 | vs UCLA | 16-34 | L | -5.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Arizona | 41-31 | W | -3.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 11 | @ Colorado | 13-16 | L | -4.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 12 | @ Washington State | 22-49 | L | +10.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 13 | vs California | 20-24 | L | 0.0 | L | 41 | O |
| 14 | vs Notre Dame | 24-45 | L | +17.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.023 | 34th | +0.086 | 18th |
| Red Zone | -0.211 | 18th | +0.021 | 44th |
| Third Down | +0.004 | 46th | +0.129 | 27th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.049 | 32th | +0.104 | 13th |
| First Half | +0.080 | 73th | +0.197 | 1th |
| Second Half | -0.133 | 15th | -0.026 | 61th |
| Early Downs | +0.010 | 52th | +0.043 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | +0.048 | 58th | +0.164 | 16th |
| Standard Downs | -0.060 | 25th | +0.049 | 26th |
| Goal to Go | -0.107 | 39th | +0.145 | 22th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 56.2%Rush 43.8%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
367.9
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
18.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Stanford | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 260 | 358 |
| Points / Game | 21.7 | 29.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 237 | 274 |
| Rushing | 70 | 102 |
| Passing | 143 | 153 |
| Penalty | 24 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 346 | 406 |
| Yards | 1,266 | 1,809 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 105.5 | 150.8 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 444 | 413 |
| Completions | 276 | 270 |
| Completion % | 62.2% | 65.4% |
| Yards | 3,149 | 3,354 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 27 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 131.51 | 151.29 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 790 | 819 |
| Yards | 4,415 | 5,163 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 367.9 | 430.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 11 |
| Yards | 93 | 88 |
| Average | 7.2 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 25 |
| Yards | 770 | 525 |
| Average | 24.1 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,221 | 1,885 |
| Average | 39.7 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 8 |
| Yards | 15 | 55 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 7 | 7 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 74 |
| Yards | 585 | 683 |
| Yards / Game | 48.8 | 56.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:11 | 27:49 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 157 |
| Conversions | 65 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 39.2% | 45.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 16 |
| Conversions | 4 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 30.8% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 34 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 41 |
| Score % | 88.2% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 32 |
| TD % | 47.1% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 21 |
| Made | 19 | 15 |
| Pct | 76.0% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 45 |
| Made | 27 | 43 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.