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Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference3-9#110 (-5.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
26· DRating
29· DPer play
21· DConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
5· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.087
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.043
Defensive EPA/play
+0.147
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.189
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.24
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#90
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
recruiting 67 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
70th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4232Duke2021OA -0.141 / -0.122similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3663UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: turnover rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3464UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate3345South Alabama2020OA -0.014 / -0.016similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA329

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas State31-42L-27.5L60O
2vs Utah13-20L+7.5W45U
3vs LIU30-7W-29.5L46.5U
4vs Texas6-38L+14.5L49.5U
5@ UCF36-35W+12.5W55.5O
6vs Texas Tech14-39L+1.5L60.5U
8@ Cincinnati32-29W+3.0W50.5O
9vs Iowa State18-30L+2.5L47.5O
10vs Houston24-25L-4.0L58U
11@ Kansas State25-59L+20.5L55.5O
12@ TCU17-42L+13.0L58.5O
13vs West Virginia31-34L+9.0W55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off47thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off51thPass Def6thRush Def21thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04925th+0.1286th
Red Zone-0.2474th-0.05359th
Third Down+0.20751th+0.34119th
No Garbage Time-0.05127th+0.1505th
First Half-0.1437th+0.1734th
Second Half+0.04769th+0.08323th
Early Downs-0.06536th+0.07410th
Passing Downs-0.09217th+0.2346th
Standard Downs-0.02547th+0.07121th
Goal to Go-0.3534th-0.10266th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.7%Rush 48.3%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
377.8
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
14.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points277400
Points / Game23.133.3
First Downs
Total238241
Rushing87104
Passing139129
Penalty128
Rushing
Attempts413440
Yards1,3782,219
Yards / Carry3.35.0
Yards / Game114.8184.9
Touchdowns1327
Passing
Attempts442328
Completions263213
Completion %59.5%64.9%
Yards3,1562,837
Yards / Attempt7.18.6
Touchdowns1522
Interceptions77
Passer Rating127.51155.46
Total Offense
Plays855768
Yards4,5345,056
Yards / Play5.36.6
Yards / Game377.8421.3
Punt Returns
Returns1313
Yards201171
Average15.513.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4228
Yards996529
Average23.718.9
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts3538
Yards1,5011,649
Average42.943.4
Interception Returns
Returns77
Yards1474
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1423
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties4957
Yards347509
Yards / Game28.942.4
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4228:18
Third Downs
Attempts177152
Conversions6467
Conversion %36.2%44.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4822
Conversions2211
Conversion %45.8%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4745
Scores (TD + FG)3536
Score %74.5%80.0%
Touchdowns2228
TD %46.8%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2516
Made1811
Pct72.0%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2349
Made2149
Pct91.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts93
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →