Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-7#102 (-5.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
35· DPer play
15· DConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
32· DPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.030
Defensive EPA/play
+0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.3%
Def Success Rate
50.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.97
own return game
Return Defense
-0.38
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 64 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
37th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
35th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3502East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense3303Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3274Baylor2023OA -0.051 / -0.087similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3275Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA323

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Southern Miss32-21W----
2vs Tulane24-27L+9.0W53.5U
4vs UAB10-42L----
7vs Texas State30-20W-2.5W58U
8vs UL Monroe38-14W+3.5L52U
9@ Georgia Southern17-24L----
10@ Coastal Carolina6-23L+18.0W55.5U
11@ Louisiana10-38L+15.5L54U
12vs Georgia State14-31L+3.5L58.5U
13@ Arkansas State38-31W+7.0W63.5O
14vs Troy0-29L+4.5L54.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
2-9
18.2%
Straight Up
4-7
36.4%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off5thRed Zone Off9th3rd Down Off93thPass Def34thRush Def43thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05823th+0.05338th
Red Zone-0.2629th-0.09571th
Third Down+0.41493th+0.19527th
No Garbage Time-0.03532th+0.05138th
First Half-0.03135th+0.08527th
Second Half-0.08716th+0.01952th
Early Downs-0.2212th+0.03141th
Passing Downs+0.08661th+0.10234th
Standard Downs-0.1545th+0.03043th
Goal to Go-0.11128th+0.16133th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
358.5
Pts/Drive
1.83
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points219300
Points / Game19.927.3
First Downs
Total218231
Rushing8490
Passing110130
Penalty2411
Rushing
Attempts419412
Yards1,2251,919
Yards / Carry2.94.7
Yards / Game111.4174.5
Touchdowns722
Passing
Attempts351333
Completions219220
Completion %62.4%66.1%
Yards2,7192,881
Yards / Attempt7.78.7
Touchdowns1815
Interceptions67
Passer Rating140.97149.40
Total Offense
Plays770745
Yards3,9444,800
Yards / Play5.16.4
Yards / Game358.5436.4
Punt Returns
Returns88
Yards41101
Average5.112.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2220
Yards369490
Average16.824.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4439
Yards1,7941,603
Average40.841.1
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards13437
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1315
Lost97
Penalties
Penalties4263
Yards384638
Yards / Game34.958.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2229:38
Third Downs
Attempts167143
Conversions6659
Conversion %39.5%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3426
Conversions1610
Conversion %47.1%38.5%
Red Zone
Trips3053
Scores (TD + FG)2443
Score %80.0%81.1%
Touchdowns1532
TD %50.0%60.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1716
Made1313
Pct76.5%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2533
Made2431
Pct96.0%93.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →