Fourth Down Data
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Missouri State

BearsBalanced
Conference USA0-1#113 (-6.28)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
40· CPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.099
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.757
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
22.5%
Def Success Rate
56.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
4.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.733
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Missouri State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
0th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4422Syracuse2020OA -0.111 / +0.002similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3873Illinois2017OA -0.133 / -0.054similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3804Clemson2026OA -0.116 / +0.005similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3795Kansas2020OA -0.097 / -0.019similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense371

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M0-50L+40.5L53.5U
2vs Lindenwood------
3vs Marshall------
4@ SMU------
6@ Western Kentucky------
7vs Kennesaw State------
8@ Delaware------
9vs Sam Houston------
10@ Florida International------
11vs New Mexico State------
12@ Jacksonville State------
13vs Liberty------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off0thRush Off1thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off9thPass Def66thRush Def13thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.6860th+0.05029th
Red Zone-0th+0.23534th
Third Down-0.7729th-0.24766th
No Garbage Time-0.7681th+0.02733th
First Half-0.7571th-0.10950th
Second Half-0.6081th+0.18522th
Early Downs-0.4931th+0.06423th
Passing Downs-0.9090th-0.19966th
Standard Downs-0.5041th+0.13713th
Goal to Go-0th+0.71628th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.5%Rush 57.5%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
1.0
Yards/Game
67.0
Pts/Drive
0.00
3rd Down%
10.0%
3&Out%
50.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Missouri State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouri StateOpponents
Scoring
Points050
Points / Game0.050.0
First Downs
Total435
Rushing217
Passing116
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts2347
Yards37236
Yards / Carry1.65.0
Yards / Game37.0236.0
Touchdowns03
Passing
Attempts1738
Completions825
Completion %47.1%65.8%
Yards30269
Yards / Attempt1.87.1
Touchdowns03
Interceptions00
Passer Rating61.88151.31
Total Offense
Plays4085
Yards67505
Yards / Play1.75.9
Yards / Game67.0505.0
Punt Returns
Returns14
Yards-638
Average-6.09.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns21
Yards3617
Average18.017.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts72
Yards28584
Average40.742.0
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles32
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties88
Yards4175
Yards / Game41.075.0
Time of Possession
Per Game16:5743:03
Third Downs
Attempts1014
Conversions17
Conversion %10.0%50.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts22
Conversions12
Conversion %50.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips08
Scores (TD + FG)07
Score %—87.5%
Touchdowns06
TD %—75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts02
Made02
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts06
Made06
Pct—100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →