Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
LIB

Liberty

FlamesRun-Heavy
Conference USA0-1#63 (+1.63)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
38· DPer play
37· DConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
47· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
2· FRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.010
Defensive EPA/play
-0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
36.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.038
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Tech2026OA -0.049 / -0.024similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3392Tulsa2019OA -0.027 / +0.059similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3343Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3264Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, defensive success rate3255Louisville2026OA +0.042 / -0.002similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA320

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ James Madison13-20L+6.5L50.5U
2vs Gardner-Webb------
3vs Ball State------
4@ Coastal Carolina------
5@ Delaware------
6vs Sam Houston------
8@ Kennesaw State------
9vs Florida International------
10@ New Mexico State------
11vs Middle Tennessee------
12vs Western Kentucky------
13@ Missouri State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off69thRush Off17thRed Zone Off2th3rd Down Off55thPass Def30thRush Def67thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01040th-0.04849th
Red Zone-1.2702th-0.29164th
Third Down+0.17855th-0.24365th
No Garbage Time-0.01037th-0.04847th
First Half+0.03045th+0.3336th
Second Half-0.04940th-0.41591th
Early Downs-0.2996th-0.25977th
Passing Downs+0.32069th+0.19430th
Standard Downs-0.20317th-0.21667th
Goal to Go-0th-0.19371th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
7.0
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
321.0
Pts/Drive
1.44
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLibertyOpponents
Scoring
Points1320
Points / Game13.020.0
First Downs
Total1915
Rushing67
Passing105
Penalty33
Rushing
Attempts3831
Yards91173
Yards / Carry2.45.6
Yards / Game91.0173.0
Touchdowns01
Passing
Attempts2718
Completions1712
Completion %63.0%66.7%
Yards230118
Yards / Attempt8.56.6
Touchdowns11
Interceptions00
Passer Rating146.74140.07
Total Offense
Plays6549
Yards321291
Yards / Play4.95.9
Yards / Game321.0291.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards114
Average5.54.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards2136
Average21.036.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts44
Yards161187
Average40.346.8
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties128
Yards8292
Yards / Game82.092.0
Time of Possession
Per Game37:1722:38
Third Downs
Attempts1610
Conversions74
Conversion %43.8%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts30
Conversions10
Conversion %33.3%—
Red Zone
Trips24
Scores (TD + FG)13
Score %50.0%75.0%
Touchdowns02
TD %0.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →