Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference11-2#5 (+10.84)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
84· BPer play
87· BConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
93· APer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.107
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.101
Defensive EPA/play
-0.175
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.276
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.06

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
model 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 72 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
94th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate4622Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4113Arizona2023OA +0.091 / +0.078similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3964BYU2025OA +0.104 / +0.062similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive success rate3855Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate378

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan State31-38L-7.0W67.5U
2vs New Mexico State60-13W-23.0W62O
3vs Tennessee Tech73-12W----
4vs Air Force42-32W-10.0P59.5O
6@ BYU45-20W--55O
7vs UNLV59-28W-27.0W65O
8@ Wyoming24-16W-13.5L49U
9vs New Mexico61-19W-20.0W64O
10@ Hawai'i56-17W-19.0W71O
11vs San José State62-24W-31.0W63.5O
12@ Colorado State29-24W-30.5L66.5U
13@ Boise State24-33L+2.5L65U
16@ North Texas52-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-3-1
66.7%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS4-0
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off68thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off87thPass Def93thRush Def61thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07280th-0.11489th
Red Zone+0.07868th-0.17586th
Third Down+0.26187th-0.19492th
No Garbage Time+0.10684th-0.18095th
First Half+0.10986th-0.23798th
Second Half+0.02761th+0.01745th
Early Downs-0.01648th-0.01848th
Passing Downs+0.13681th-0.23193th
Standard Downs+0.04268th-0.04361th
Goal to Go+0.06851th-0.15377th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
16.2
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
497.4
Pts/Drive
3.06
3rd Down%
47.0%
3&Out%
17.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points618289
Points / Game47.522.2
First Downs
Total303254
Rushing122100
Passing164123
Penalty1731
Rushing
Attempts480531
Yards2,6411,859
Yards / Carry5.53.5
Yards / Game203.2143.0
Touchdowns3712
Passing
Attempts465455
Completions303244
Completion %65.2%53.6%
Yards3,8253,074
Yards / Attempt8.26.8
Touchdowns3218
Interceptions622
Passer Rating154.39113.76
Total Offense
Plays945986
Yards6,4664,933
Yards / Play6.85.0
Yards / Game497.4379.5
Punt Returns
Returns2610
Yards237130
Average9.113.0
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns3032
Yards909695
Average30.321.7
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5580
Yards2,1453,165
Average39.039.6
Interception Returns
Returns206
Yards47549
Touchdowns60
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost1210
Penalties
Penalties10192
Yards916803
Yards / Game70.561.8
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5233:08
Third Downs
Attempts181215
Conversions8571
Conversion %47.0%33.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1031
Conversions613
Conversion %60.0%41.9%
Red Zone
Trips6141
Scores (TD + FG)5435
Score %88.5%85.4%
Touchdowns4022
TD %65.6%53.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2825
Made2219
Pct78.6%76.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7826
Made7824
Pct100.0%92.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts17
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →