Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced
FBS Independents14-2#2 (+13.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
92· A-Rating
83· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
87· BConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.098
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.102
Defensive EPA/play
-0.183
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.285
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.075
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.26
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#14
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#7
model 5 spots higher
66 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2019OA +0.120 / +0.254similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense4362Oregon2019OA +0.082 / +0.145similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4293Cincinnati2021OA +0.017 / +0.150similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4244Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4065App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate395

2024 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M23-13W+3.0W46U
2vs Northern Illinois14-16L-30.0L45.75U
3@ Purdue66-7W-10.0W45.5O
4vs Miami (OH)28-3W-28.0L43.5U
5vs Louisville31-24W-6.5W46O
7vs Stanford49-7W-23.5W45O
8@ Georgia Tech31-13W-11.5W49U
9@ Navy51-14W-12.5W52O
11vs Florida State52-3W-25.5W42.5O
12vs Virginia35-14W-22.5L50.5U
13vs Army49-14W-14.5W44.5O
14@ USC49-35W-7.5W51.5O
17vs Indiana27-17W----
19@ Georgia23-10W-1.0W45O
20@ Penn State27-24W----
21vs Ohio State23-34L+9.0L45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
12-4
75.0%
O/U Record
9-7
56.3%
Straight Up
14-2
87.5%
Home ATS5-4
Away ATS7-0
Favorite ATS11-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off81thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off75thPass Def87thRush Def99thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10786th-0.16499th
Red Zone+0.19584th-0.16379th
Third Down+0.21975th-0.13490th
No Garbage Time+0.10785th-0.19599th
First Half+0.10883th-0.17995th
Second Half+0.10682th-0.14995th
Early Downs+0.04176th-0.13592th
Passing Downs+0.16285th-0.15087th
Standard Downs+0.08181th-0.17199th
Goal to Go+0.26386th+0.20412th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.9%Rush 56.1%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
399.1
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 16 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points578248
Points / Game36.115.5
First Downs
Total326272
Rushing147126
Passing150118
Penalty2928
Rushing
Attempts568584
Yards3,2152,209
Yards / Carry5.73.8
Yards / Game200.9138.1
Touchdowns4516
Passing
Attempts445451
Completions296235
Completion %66.5%52.1%
Yards3,1702,710
Yards / Attempt7.16.0
Touchdowns2414
Interceptions819
Passer Rating140.56104.40
Total Offense
Plays1,0131,035
Yards6,3854,919
Yards / Play6.34.8
Yards / Game399.1307.4
Punt Returns
Returns2920
Yards16183
Average5.64.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1738
Yards402593
Average23.615.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5075
Yards2,0913,145
Average41.841.9
Interception Returns
Returns198
Yards45478
Touchdowns50
Fumbles
Fumbles1331
Lost714
Penalties
Penalties9387
Yards814773
Yards / Game50.948.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1029:50
Third Downs
Attempts184217
Conversions7670
Conversion %41.3%32.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3041
Conversions2215
Conversion %73.3%36.6%
Red Zone
Trips6045
Scores (TD + FG)4934
Score %81.7%75.6%
Touchdowns4325
TD %71.7%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2717
Made1513
Pct55.6%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7427
Made7327
Pct98.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →