Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference12-2#10 (+19.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
86· BRating
69· CPer play
74· BConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
86· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.082
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.145
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.057
Defensive EPA/play
-0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.177
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.196
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.29
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#17
model 7 spots higher
36 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4292Cincinnati2020OA +0.022 / +0.059similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4083Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4024Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3965Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate386

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Auburn21-27L+3.0W53O
2vs Nevada77-6W-24.0W61.5O
3vs Montana35-3W-38.5L65.5U
4@ Stanford21-6W-13.0W55.5U
6vs California17-7W-21.5L46.5U
7vs Colorado45-3W-22.5W61.5U
8@ Washington35-31W-3.0W48O
9vs Washington State37-35W-14.0L68.5O
10@ USC56-24W-4.0W60.5O
12vs Arizona34-6W-28.0P69U
13@ Arizona State28-31L-14.0L55O
14vs Oregon State24-10W-20.0L65U
15vs Utah37-15W+6.5W46O
19@ Wisconsin28-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WPLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off84thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off62thPass Def87thRush Def87thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07977th-0.12190th
Red Zone+0.01860th-0.35896th
Third Down+0.09662th-0.03264th
No Garbage Time+0.06170th-0.12187th
First Half+0.03760th-0.15291th
Second Half+0.12290th-0.08984th
Early Downs+0.11590th-0.12090th
Passing Downs+0.04557th-0.13687th
Standard Downs+0.09584th-0.11287th
Goal to Go-0.31016th-0.89198th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.7%Rush 53.3%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
22.3%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
433.1
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
41.8%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points495231
Points / Game35.416.5
First Downs
Total320267
Rushing12494
Passing170139
Penalty2634
Rushing
Attempts510467
Yards2,4481,525
Yards / Carry4.83.3
Yards / Game174.9108.9
Touchdowns265
Passing
Attempts446506
Completions298297
Completion %66.8%58.7%
Yards3,6153,082
Yards / Attempt8.16.1
Touchdowns3518
Interceptions620
Passer Rating158.11113.69
Total Offense
Plays956973
Yards6,0634,607
Yards / Play6.34.7
Yards / Game433.1329.1
Punt Returns
Returns1826
Yards258193
Average14.37.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2944
Yards7621,075
Average26.324.4
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts6278
Yards2,7203,117
Average43.940.0
Interception Returns
Returns206
Yards293106
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1216
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties85116
Yards862947
Yards / Game61.667.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1531:45
Third Downs
Attempts177220
Conversions7473
Conversion %41.8%33.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2533
Conversions1314
Conversion %52.0%42.4%
Red Zone
Trips6339
Scores (TD + FG)4930
Score %77.8%76.9%
Touchdowns4114
TD %65.1%35.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1426
Made920
Pct64.3%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6621
Made6421
Pct97.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →