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Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference11-3#13 (+18.46)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
82· BRating
57· CPer play
36· DConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
86· BPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.147
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.144
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 25 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
82th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4602Oregon2018OA +0.018 / +0.041similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense4343Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate4124Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4125Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense411

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Stephen F. Austin56-17W+4.0L44U
2vs UTSA63-14W-25.0W58.5O
4@ Rice21-13W-27.0L57.5U
5vs Iowa State23-21W+2.5W55.5U
6@ Kansas State31-12W-1.0W48.5U
7vs Texas Tech33-30W-10.5L58.5O
8@ Oklahoma State45-27W+5.5W68.5O
10vs West Virginia17-14W-18.0L57U
11@ TCU29-23W-3.0W48.5O
12vs Oklahoma31-34L+10.0W69.5U
13vs Texas24-10W-4.0W58.5U
14@ Kansas61-6W-14.5W48O
15@ Oklahoma23-30L+9.0W65.5U
19vs Georgia14-26L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off31thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off53thPass Def78thRush Def85thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03057th-0.10084th
Red Zone+0.13778th-0.12571th
Third Down+0.03953th-0.01460th
No Garbage Time+0.01452th-0.13290th
First Half-0.02936th-0.22897th
Second Half+0.09280th+0.02440th
Early Downs-0.00347th-0.12290th
Passing Downs+0.15282th-0.08878th
Standard Downs-0.03831th-0.10785th
Goal to Go-0.11937th-0.03750th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
16.6
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
421.5
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points471277
Points / Game33.619.8
First Downs
Total308283
Rushing125114
Passing151148
Penalty3221
Rushing
Attempts504547
Yards2,3302,000
Yards / Carry4.63.7
Yards / Game166.4142.9
Touchdowns3516
Passing
Attempts444485
Completions277292
Completion %62.4%60.2%
Yards3,5713,046
Yards / Attempt8.06.3
Touchdowns2415
Interceptions817
Passer Rating144.18116.16
Total Offense
Plays9481,032
Yards5,9015,046
Yards / Play6.24.9
Yards / Game421.5360.4
Punt Returns
Returns1510
Yards13460
Average8.96.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2437
Yards472713
Average19.719.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7282
Yards2,8993,373
Average40.341.1
Interception Returns
Returns178
Yards25040
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2324
Lost1113
Penalties
Penalties9186
Yards778863
Yards / Game55.661.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2031:40
Third Downs
Attempts180232
Conversions7590
Conversion %41.7%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1526
Conversions615
Conversion %40.0%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips5950
Scores (TD + FG)5342
Score %89.8%84.0%
Touchdowns3925
TD %66.1%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2024
Made1619
Pct80.0%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5729
Made5728
Pct100.0%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →