Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference9-4#63 (+0.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

52· COverall
Offense
56· CRating
53· CPer play
37· DConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
67· CPer play
49· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
50· C3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.078
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#20
recruiting 43 spots higher
30 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
45th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
63th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense4322TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: rushing offense, passing offense, pass defense3723Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3674Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3665Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA363

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bowling Green58-24W+1.0W47U
2vs Portland State62-14W-49.5L--
3vs San José State35-22W-42.5L70.5U
4vs Stanford31-38L+2.5L59O
5@ California42-24W-2.0W58.5O
7vs Washington30-27W+3.5W59U
8@ Washington State20-34L+3.0L70U
9@ Arizona15-44L-7.5L64.5U
10vs UCLA42-21W-10.5W59.5O
11@ Utah25-32L+5.5L51O
12vs Arizona State31-29W-3.5L64U
13@ Oregon State55-15W-18.0W71U
18vs Michigan State7-6W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off62thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off50thPass Def86thRush Def40thRed Zone Def92th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04365th-0.04867th
Red Zone+0.13680th-0.27792th
Third Down+0.04950th-0.10580th
No Garbage Time+0.03664th-0.05467th
First Half+0.08176th-0.04658th
Second Half+0.00748th-0.05172th
Early Downs+0.00961th+0.02535th
Passing Downs+0.07773th-0.15886th
Standard Downs+0.02762th+0.01340th
Goal to Go-0.07928th-0.27488th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.1%Rush 55.9%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
427.2
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points453330
Points / Game34.825.4
First Downs
Total279272
Rushing118102
Passing140147
Penalty2123
Rushing
Attempts529503
Yards2,3321,876
Yards / Carry4.43.7
Yards / Game179.4144.3
Touchdowns2813
Passing
Attempts418453
Completions246257
Completion %58.9%56.7%
Yards3,2223,141
Yards / Attempt7.76.9
Touchdowns2924
Interceptions817
Passer Rating142.67124.95
Total Offense
Plays947956
Yards5,5545,017
Yards / Play5.95.2
Yards / Game427.2385.9
Punt Returns
Returns2214
Yards263103
Average12.07.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3444
Yards686998
Average20.222.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6867
Yards2,6892,833
Average39.542.3
Interception Returns
Returns178
Yards13754
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2120
Lost106
Penalties
Penalties6577
Yards623583
Yards / Game47.944.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5532:04
Third Downs
Attempts196202
Conversions8475
Conversion %42.9%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2825
Conversions1710
Conversion %60.7%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5149
Scores (TD + FG)4341
Score %84.3%83.7%
Touchdowns3820
TD %74.5%40.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1127
Made623
Pct54.5%85.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5835
Made5733
Pct98.3%94.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →