Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference11-3#17 (+15.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
51· CRating
66· CPer play
71· BConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
91· A-Rating
74· BPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.166
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.025
Defensive EPA/play
-0.112
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
39.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.27
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
model 13 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
92th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: run defense, havoc rate, offensive success rate4222Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4103South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: pass defense, passing offense, run defense3944Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3895Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, run defense387

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Jackson State63-0W-3.0L49.5O
2@ Arkansas28-7W-3.0W58U
3vs SMU56-36W-22.0L65O
4@ Oklahoma State44-31W+9.5W67O
6vs West Virginia31-24W-12.0L66.5U
7@ Kansas State26-6W-7.5W49.5U
8vs Kansas43-0W-37.5W61U
9@ Iowa State7-14L-7.5L48U
10vs Texas24-7W-7.5W45U
11@ Oklahoma20-38L+6.0L63.5U
12@ Texas Tech27-3W-6.5W52U
13vs Baylor45-22W-24.5L52.5O
14@ Oklahoma17-41L+7.0L63.5U
18vs Stanford39-37W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off43thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off76thPass Def92thRush Def62thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02167th-0.12379th
Red Zone+0.07469th-0.36195th
Third Down+0.13776th-0.12267th
No Garbage Time+0.02665th-0.11076th
First Half+0.02867th-0.04954th
Second Half+0.01562th-0.20494th
Early Downs-0.03950th-0.10679th
Passing Downs+0.18289th-0.20992th
Standard Downs-0.05543th-0.06462th
Goal to Go-0.00950th-0.63199th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
419.2
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
22.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points470266
Points / Game33.619.0
First Downs
Total298233
Rushing13379
Passing143128
Penalty2226
Rushing
Attempts533480
Yards2,4381,455
Yards / Carry4.63.0
Yards / Game174.1103.9
Touchdowns278
Passing
Attempts430436
Completions285229
Completion %66.3%52.5%
Yards3,4313,185
Yards / Attempt8.07.3
Touchdowns2823
Interceptions813
Passer Rating151.07125.33
Total Offense
Plays963916
Yards5,8694,640
Yards / Play6.15.1
Yards / Game419.2331.4
Punt Returns
Returns218
Yards34766
Average16.58.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2748
Yards687910
Average25.419.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7086
Yards2,7383,688
Average39.142.9
Interception Returns
Returns138
Yards199174
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2719
Lost97
Penalties
Penalties8967
Yards750596
Yards / Game53.642.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4129:19
Third Downs
Attempts199211
Conversions9166
Conversion %45.7%31.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1425
Conversions512
Conversion %35.7%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips5436
Scores (TD + FG)4825
Score %88.9%69.4%
Touchdowns3616
TD %66.7%44.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1625
Made1414
Pct87.5%56.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6031
Made5630
Pct93.3%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →