Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
USA

South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference10-3#25 (+5.38)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
59· CRating
62· CPer play
50· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
81· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.78
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.52
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#32
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
82th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
52th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1East Carolina2025OA +0.034 / +0.081similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4132Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4123Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4004Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3985Houston2025OA +0.036 / +0.057similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate397

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nicholls State48-7W-13.0W53.75O
2@ Central Michigan38-24W+6.0W58.5O
3@ UCLA31-32L+15.5W59.5O
4vs Louisiana Tech38-14W-13.0W60U
5@ Louisiana20-17W-9.0L47.5U
7vs UL Monroe41-34W-3.0L46.5U
8vs Troy6-10L----
9@ Arkansas State31-3W-10.0W54.5U
10@ Georgia Southern38-31W-4.0W60.5O
11vs Texas State38-21W-16.5W47.5O
12@ Southern Miss27-20W-7.5L45.5O
13vs Old Dominion27-20W-15.5L48U
17vs Western Kentucky23-44L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off70thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off82thPass Def84thRush Def60thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04767th-0.08779th
Red Zone+0.05861th-0.23184th
Third Down+0.28282th-0.13389th
No Garbage Time+0.03264th-0.10080th
First Half-0.00548th-0.05964th
Second Half+0.10886th-0.11383th
Early Downs+0.03471th-0.10482th
Passing Downs+0.05060th-0.16884th
Standard Downs+0.04570th-0.03860th
Goal to Go+0.12274th-0.19573th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
424.2
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
42.8%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points406277
Points / Game31.221.3
First Downs
Total292241
Rushing10877
Passing167127
Penalty1737
Rushing
Attempts505367
Yards2,0361,221
Yards / Carry4.03.3
Yards / Game156.693.9
Touchdowns198
Passing
Attempts447470
Completions291281
Completion %65.1%59.8%
Yards3,4783,112
Yards / Attempt7.86.6
Touchdowns2822
Interceptions1213
Passer Rating145.76125.32
Total Offense
Plays952837
Yards5,5144,333
Yards / Play5.85.2
Yards / Game424.2333.3
Punt Returns
Returns2416
Yards220184
Average9.211.5
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2635
Yards583648
Average22.418.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5767
Yards2,4552,864
Average43.142.7
Interception Returns
Returns1312
Yards114120
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles910
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties10166
Yards930633
Yards / Game71.548.7
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1827:19
Third Downs
Attempts194177
Conversions8356
Conversion %42.8%31.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2925
Conversions1715
Conversion %58.6%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips5442
Scores (TD + FG)4532
Score %83.3%76.2%
Touchdowns3318
TD %61.1%42.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1924
Made1818
Pct94.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4829
Made4629
Pct95.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →