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HOU
Houston
CougarsRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference10-3#54 (+3.08)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
60· COverall
Offense
67· CRating
63· CPer play
55· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
84· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.034
Defensive EPA/play
-0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.143
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.103
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.72
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.21
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 32 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#55
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 5 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense64th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play85th
Offensive success rate51th
Explosiveness72th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive59th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3972Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3953Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3884Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3865Missouri2024OA +0.015 / +0.040similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate384
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Stephen F. Austin | 27-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Rice | 35-9 | W | -4.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Colorado | 36-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Oregon State | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Texas Tech | 11-35 | L | +13.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Oklahoma State | 39-17 | W | -14.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Arizona | 31-28 | W | +1.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Arizona State | 24-16 | W | +7.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 10 | vs West Virginia | 35-45 | L | -13.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 11 | @ UCF | 30-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs TCU | 14-17 | L | +7.5 | W | 54.75 | U |
| 14 | @ Baylor | 31-24 | W | +2.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 18 | vs LSU | 38-35 | W | -1.5 | W | 42 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.015 | 57th | -0.107 | 88th |
| Red Zone | +0.214 | 91th | -0.098 | 70th |
| Third Down | +0.266 | 81th | -0.135 | 87th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.034 | 65th | -0.108 | 84th |
| First Half | +0.030 | 59th | -0.112 | 81th |
| Second Half | -0.001 | 53th | -0.101 | 82th |
| Early Downs | -0.031 | 39th | -0.149 | 94th |
| Passing Downs | -0.036 | 45th | -0.086 | 70th |
| Standard Downs | +0.040 | 65th | -0.117 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | +0.229 | 82th | +0.276 | 11th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.8%Rush 59.2%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
394.5
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
19.2%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 378 | 297 |
| Points / Game | 29.1 | 22.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 287 | 235 |
| Rushing | 114 | 110 |
| Passing | 130 | 112 |
| Penalty | 43 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 548 | 452 |
| Yards | 2,315 | 1,677 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 178.1 | 129.0 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 377 | 403 |
| Completions | 242 | 243 |
| Completion % | 64.2% | 60.3% |
| Yards | 2,813 | 2,845 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 144.32 | 126.74 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 925 | 855 |
| Yards | 5,128 | 4,522 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 394.5 | 347.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 16 |
| Yards | 128 | 239 |
| Average | 6.1 | 14.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 29 |
| Yards | 419 | 751 |
| Average | 19.0 | 25.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,336 | 2,672 |
| Average | 43.3 | 42.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 139 | 246 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 22 |
| Lost | 4 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 60 | 98 |
| Yards | 521 | 867 |
| Yards / Game | 40.1 | 66.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:18 | 27:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 195 | 184 |
| Conversions | 80 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 41.0% | 35.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 26 |
| Conversions | 19 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 59.4% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 32 |
| Score % | 91.5% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 20 |
| TD % | 66.0% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 24 |
| Made | 21 | 16 |
| Pct | 80.8% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 31 |
| Made | 43 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.