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MIZ
Missouri
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-3#50 (+2.43)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
63· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
58· CPer play
64· CConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
83· BPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.029
Defensive EPA/play
-0.107
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.135
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.111
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 28 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#18
market 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
#21
recruiting 29 spots higher
26 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense82th
Offensive EPA/play58th
Defensive EPA/play84th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc66th
Points per drive64th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Syracuse2018OA +0.008 / +0.062similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense4102Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense4083Tennessee2023OA +0.001 / +0.044similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3974Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3855South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA385
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Murray State | 51-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Buffalo | 38-0 | W | -34.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Boston College | 27-21 | W | -16.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Vanderbilt | 30-27 | W | -20.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Texas A&M | 10-41 | L | +2.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Massachusetts | 45-3 | W | -27.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 8 | vs Auburn | 21-17 | W | -4.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 9 | @ Alabama | 0-34 | L | +13.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 11 | vs Oklahoma | 30-23 | W | +2.5 | W | 41.5 | O |
| 12 | @ South Carolina | 30-34 | L | +12.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Mississippi State | 39-20 | W | -7.5 | W | 57 | O |
| 14 | vs Arkansas | 28-21 | W | -3.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Iowa | 27-24 | W | -2.5 | W | 40.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.024 | 56th | -0.118 | 90th |
| Red Zone | +0.144 | 79th | -0.143 | 75th |
| Third Down | +0.220 | 77th | -0.228 | 97th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.026 | 57th | -0.114 | 87th |
| First Half | -0.011 | 43th | -0.098 | 79th |
| Second Half | +0.057 | 65th | -0.142 | 93th |
| Early Downs | +0.009 | 58th | +0.016 | 31th |
| Passing Downs | -0.029 | 35th | -0.275 | 100th |
| Standard Downs | +0.050 | 71th | -0.033 | 60th |
| Goal to Go | +0.057 | 58th | -0.202 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
389.5
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
46.4%
3&Out%
15.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Missouri | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 376 | 265 |
| Points / Game | 28.9 | 20.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 276 | 211 |
| Rushing | 137 | 93 |
| Passing | 120 | 100 |
| Penalty | 19 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 518 | 435 |
| Yards | 2,138 | 1,771 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 164.5 | 136.2 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 404 | 325 |
| Completions | 250 | 198 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 60.9% |
| Yards | 2,926 | 2,357 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 131.68 | 131.75 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 922 | 760 |
| Yards | 5,064 | 4,128 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 389.5 | 317.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 11 |
| Yards | 37 | 82 |
| Average | 4.6 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 17 |
| Yards | 450 | 428 |
| Average | 19.6 | 25.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,047 | 2,562 |
| Average | 41.8 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 5 |
| Yards | 161 | 47 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 21 |
| Lost | 4 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 78 |
| Yards | 658 | 682 |
| Yards / Game | 50.6 | 52.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:54 | 26:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 192 | 159 |
| Conversions | 89 | 48 |
| Conversion % | 46.4% | 30.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 24 |
| Conversions | 10 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 30 |
| Score % | 92.0% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 20 |
| TD % | 62.0% | 55.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 18 |
| Made | 24 | 14 |
| Pct | 70.6% | 77.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 31 |
| Made | 36 | 31 |
| Pct | 97.3% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 0 |
| Made | 5 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.